Household Wealth, Borrowing Capacity and Stock Market: a DSGE-VAR Approach
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发布日期:2021年09月24日 上次修订日期:2021年11月27日

摘要

Based on a DSGE model embedded with a stock market, we inspect interconnection between China’s financial markets and macroeconomic cycles. We find consumption, investment and capacity utilization display significant and positive responses to stock market booms triggered by financial and confidence shocks, however, inflation responds insignificantly. We perceive a counteractive and significant reaction of China’s monetary policy rule to credit-to-GDP gap at business cycle frequency. We decompose stock price into fundamental value influenced by the financial shock and speculative bubble driven by the confidence shock, and the confidence shock’s contribution to stock price fluctuations is estimated to be about 14.8%. Model validation based on the DSGE-VAR framework indicates no serious structural model misspecification.

张强. 逆向选择还是正向选择?——我国健康险市场的实证研究【EB/OL】工作论文(2012-10-15)http://

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