所属栏目:银行与金融机构/金融与宏观经济

The External and Domestic Side of Macroeconomic Adjustment in China
认领作者 认领作者管理权限
发布日期:2009年06月21日 上次修订日期:2009年06月21日

摘要

This paper sheds new light on the external and domestic dimension of China's exchange rate policy. It presents an open economy model to analyze both dimensions of macroeconomic adjustment in China under both flexible and fixed exchange rate regimes. The model-based results indicate that persistent current account surpluses in China cannot be rationalized, under general circumstances, by the occurrence of permanent technology or labor supply shocks. As a result, the understanding of the macroeconomic adjustment process in China requires to mimic the effects of potential inefficiencies, which induce the subdued response of domestic absorption to permanent income shocks causing thereby the observed positive unconditional correlation of trade balance and output. The paper argues that these inefficiencies can be potentially seen as a by-product of the fixed exchange rate regime, and can be approximated by a stochastic tax on domestic consumption or time varying transaction cost technology related to money holdings. Our results indicate that a fixed exchange regime with financial market distortions, as defined above, might induce negative effects on GDP growth in the medium-term compared to a more flexible exchange rate regime.
展开

Roland Straub; Christian Thimann The External and Domestic Side of Macroeconomic Adjustment in China (2009年06月21日) http://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/12616

选择要认领的作者1
身份验证1
确认
取消