forecast dispersion

  • 详情 Does a Sudden Breakdown in Public Information Search Impair Analyst Forecast Accuracy? Evidence from Google's Withdrawal from China
    We examine how the sudden drop in public information search capability caused by Google’s withdrawal from China affects Chinese analysts’ earnings forecasts. We observe, after Google’s withdrawal, a decline in analysts’ forecast accuracy for firms with foreign trade relative to those without it. This decline suggests that the withdrawal hinders analysts’ acquisition of foreign information about firms, which decreases the quality of their earnings forecasts. We also find that the effect of the withdrawal on forecast accuracy is stronger for firms with higher business complexity and more opaque financial reporting and for analysts with weaker information processing capacity and more attention constraints. Additionally, we find that corporate site visits serve as an alternative information source that can compensate for the information loss caused by the Google withdrawal. Last, we document that the withdrawal reduces analysts’ forecast timeliness and increases their forecast dispersion.
  • 详情 Supplier Concentration and Analyst Forecasting Bias
    This study examines the relationship between analyst forecast dispersion or accuracy and supplier concentration of listed firms in China from 2008 to 2019. Our findings suggest that higher supplier concentration is associated with lower analyst forecast dispersion, which can be attributed to the increased attention it receives from analysts. Moreover, this effect is more pronounced when firms have less bargaining power and higher institutional ownership, indicating a greater reliance on the supply chain. Our study highlights the importance of disclosing supply chain information, which provides insight beyond traditional financial information.
  • 详情 Analyst and Momentum in Emerging Markets
    Researchers have developed a number of theories to explain stock return continuation. Using stock data from 16 emerging markets (1990 to 2002), we conduct an out-of-sample test for the sources of momentum profitability. This paper examines the role of financial analyst in the exhibited stock return continuation among emerging markets. Consistent with the predictions of the gradual information diffusion theory (Hong and Stein, 1999), the evidence indicates that momentum strategies are most profitable in small firms, firms with low analyst coverage. More interestingly, we find that besides the level of analyst following, the change in analyst following, specifically, increasing analyst coverage, and the analyst forecasts with high dispersion can help explain stock return momentum.