Economic policy uncertainty

  • 详情 Centralized customers hurting employees? Customer concentration and enterprise employment
    Based on the sample data of Chinese listed companies, this paper finds that the increase in customer concentration significantly reduces the level of enterprise employment. The research results are robust to a series of tests. Further analysis shows that the increase of financing constraints, the increase of enterprise risk and the decrease of profitability are the mechanism of customer concentration affecting enterprise employment. In addition, the negative correlation between customer concentration and enterprise employment is stronger for enterprises with small size, fierce industry competition, and increasing economic policy uncertainty.
  • 详情 Economic Policy Uncertainty and Covenants in Venture Capital Contracts
    This study investigates how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affects venture capital (VC) contract terms. Using a unique database of contracts between VCs and entrepreneurial firms in China, we provide evidence that VCs include more investor-friendly covenants in contracts when EPU increases. Our findings hold across a battery of robustness checks, including addressing endogeneity concerns and using alternative EPU measures. Our mechanism analysis shows that higher investment risk and increased VCs’ bargaining power might be plausible reasons why EPU positively affects the presence of investor-friendly covenants in VC contracts.
  • 详情 Corporate default risk and environmental deterioration: international evidence
    “How does a firm’s bankruptcy affect its regional environment?” is an open empirical question that has received little attention in the literature. We hypothesize that because enterprises provide funds to protect their regional environment, their default risk negatively impacts that environment. We analyze the impact of corporate default risk on environmental deterioration in the international setting to answer this question. Using a firm-level corporate default risk quarterly data from 2013q1 to 2020q4, we find that corporate default risk is positively associated with CO2 emissions and decomposed components. These findings are reliable in low-income and highly uncertain countries but weak in countries having more market competition. We also find that the negative impact of corporate default risk on the environment is more robust in countries with more population density and fewer forest area thresholds. Finally, using the instrumental variable approach, we provide preliminary evidence that firm-level political risk (for US and Canadian firms only) increases corporate default risk, leading to a degrading environment. Our findings are robust to alternative measurements of a firm’s default risk and environmental deterioration. Our research will help environmental authorities to consider corporate default risk as a determinant when formulating environmental-related strategies.
  • 详情 Does Policy Uncertainty Affect Firms’ Exchange Rate Exposure? Evidence from China
    Analyzing data from 3,616 Chinese listed firms, we find a strong positive relationship between policy uncertainty and firms’ exchange rate exposure. This result remains robust after controlling for macroeconomic conditions and addressing endogeneity issues. Notably, policy uncertainty’s impact is significantly stronger for firms with a higher degree of international involvement and for poorly-governed firms. Interestingly, firms use financial hedging more intensively and reduce their operational hedging in high-uncertainty periods. Our results suggest that policy uncertainty exacerbates the impact of currency movements on firms’ financial performance, as firms become increasingly involved in international operations. Consequently, firms should strengthen their corporate governance and make effective use of hedging tools.
  • 详情 Why Do Firms Purchase Directors’ and Officers’ Liability Insurance? – Perspective from Economic Policy Uncertainty
    Purpose – This study aims to investigate whether firms purchase directors’ and officers’ liability (D&O) insurance when the country-level economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is high. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses D&O insurance data from Chinese listed firms between 2003 and 2019 to conduct regression analyses to examine the association between D&O insurance and EPU. Findings – The results show that government EPU, despite being an exogenous factor, increases the likelihood of firms’ purchasing D&O insurance, and this effect is more pronounced when firms are exposed to great share price crash risk and high litigation risk, suggesting that firms intend to purchase D&O insurance possibly due to the accentuated stock price crash risk and litigation risk associated with EPU. In addition, the results indicate that the effect of EPU on the D&O insurance purchase decision is moderated by the provincial capital market development and internal control quality. Practical implications – The study highlights the role of uncertain economic policies in shareholder approval of D&O insurance purchases. Originality/value – The study enriches the literature on the determinants of D&O insurance purchases by documenting novel evidence that country-level EPU is a key institutional factor shaping firms’ decisions to purchase D&O insurance.
  • 详情 Macroeconomic determinants of the long-term correlation between stock and exchange rate markets in China: A DCC-MIDAS-X approach considering structural breaks
    Owing to the liberalisation of financial markets, the impact of international capital flows on the Chinese stock market has become substantial. This study investigates the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR), consumer sentiment (CCI), macroeconomic fundamentals (MECI), and money supply (M2) on the correlations between the stock and exchange rate markets. The negative correlation between these two markets has become more pronounced in recent years. Moreover, EPU, GPR, CCI, and MECI negatively impact long-term stock-exchange rate correlations, while M2 has a positive impact. Portfolios of stock-exchange rates effectively reduce risk, especially when considering structural breaks.
  • 详情 Economic Policy Uncertainty and Covenants in Venture Capital Contracts
    This study investigates how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) affects venture capital (VC) contract terms. Using a unique database of contracts between VCs and entrepreneurial firms in China, we provide evidence that VCs include more investor-friendly covenants in contracts when EPU increases. Our findings hold across a battery of robustness checks, including addressing endogeneity concerns and using alternative EPU measures. Our mechanism analysis shows that higher investment risk and increased VCs’ bargaining power might be plausible reasons why EPU positively affects the presence of investor-friendly covenants in VC contracts.
  • 详情 Foreign Discount in International Corporate Bonds
    In recent decades, over 40% of dollar-denominated corporate bonds have been issued by non-US firms. Strikingly, these foreign issuers face an extra discount of 20 bps than their US counterparts. While standard risks fail to account for the discount, the Economic Policy Uncertainty index from Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016) can explain a substantial portion of this discrepancy, consistent with uncertainty-based model calibrations. Moreover, such foreign discount (USA effect) dominates the dollar safety premium (USD effect). My findings highlight the foreign discount effect in interna- tional corporate bonds, particularly amidst escalating global economic instability and uncertainty.
  • 详情 Dialect Diversity, Uncertainty and Corporate Investment Efficiency
    This study empirically investigates the impact of dialect diversity on corporate investment efficiency under different levels of economic policy uncertainty. Our findings reveal that local dialect diversity enhances investment efficiency during stable periods, but this advantage significantly diminishes under high economic policy uncertainty. This reduction primarily arises from underinvestment and overly cautious decision-making by fragmented management during periods of turmoil. Further analysis reveals that this reduction is exacerbated by stronger internal governance, which emphasizes checks and balances, and mitigated by stronger external governance, which focuses on supervisory power. Our results remain robust when using alternative measures of main variables and employing topography as an instrumental variable.
  • 详情 Foreign Markets vs. Domestic Markets:The Investment Allocations of Chinese Multinational Enterprises (Mnes)
    Using subsidiary-level data of 3,863 Chinese nonfinancial listed firms, we find their capital expenditures increase with foreign sales, and the difference arises from the investments of the firms’ foreign subsidiaries. We show that the foreign sales-foreign investment association becomes more sensitive when the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) increases in the domestic market. However, foreign EPU does not play such a significant role. We provide one possible explanation that due to global diversification, MNEs can hedge foreign EPU using their international subsidiary network, resulting in the overall investments unchanged. However, given China’s tight regulatory capital controls, the MNEs may be less able to hedge the domestic EPU, so that they reallocate investments from the domestic markets to the foreign markets, consistent with the transaction cost assumption underlying the real options theory. Robust tests show that access to foreign capital, profitability and institutional factors have little explanatory power over the MNEs’ foreign investment.