PLS

  • 详情 Factors in the Cross-Section of Chinese Corporate Bonds: Evidence from a Reduced-Rank Analysis
    We investigate the cross-sectional factors of Chinese corporate bond returns via the reducedrank regression analysis (RRA) proposed by He et al. (2022). We collect 37 individual bond characteristics in the extant literature using a new dataset and construct 40 factor portfolios. Empirically, we find that the four-factor models created by RRA outperform the traditional factor models, PCA, and PLS factor models, both in-sample and out-of-sample. Among the 40 factors, the bond market factor is the most substantial predictor of future bond returns. In contrast, other factors provide limited incremental information for the cross-sectional pricing. Therefore, it is necessary to find more new bond factors. We further find that stock market anomalies do not improve the explanatory power of the RRA factor models. In particular, stock market anomalies can only partially explain the systematic part of bond returns in the RRA framework and have almost no explanatory power for the idiosyncratic component.
  • 详情 双循环新发展格局下直达科创企业货币政策工具创设及“几家抬”框架构建
    当前科创企业整体呈现出“轻资产、高成长、高风险”特征,使得其在经营发展中面临着较为突出的“融资难、融资贵”问题。在双循环新发展格局下可探索采用一定的货币政策工具,引导资金更多投向科创企业。通过对比分析美联储主街贷款计划(MSLP)和我国央行推出的普惠小微企业信用贷款支持计划(CLSP),结合科创企业知识产权质押融资业务的特征,提出创设直达科创企业的货币工具—科创企业知识产权质押贷款支持计划(PLSP),计划包含 4 个主要创新点,旨在提升商业银行科创贷款的投放意愿并精准投贷贷款。构建了涉及人民银行、知识产权局、地方政府、商业银行、中介机构五方主体的科创企业金融工具“几家抬”框架,旨在通过社会各方的共同努力,有效缓解科创企业融资难、融资贵问题。
  • 详情 Hidden Non-Performing Loans in China
    We study non-performing loan (NPL) transactions in China using proprietary data from a leading market participant. We find these transactions – driven by tighter financial regulation – are consistent with banks concealing non-performing assets from regulators as (i) transaction prices do not compensate for credit risks; (ii) banks fund the NPL transactions and remain responsible for debt collection; and (iii) 70% of NPL packages are re-sold at inflated prices to bank clients. These results imply NPL transactions do not truly resolve NPLs. Recognizing the hidden NPLs implies the total NPLs in China is two to four times the reported amount.
  • 详情 期权隐含高阶矩的期限结构及收益率可预测性:来自A股期权市场的证据
    本文从含有时变高阶矩的条件资本资产定价模型(CAPM)出发,基于我国上证 50ETF期权数据,检验了期权隐含的风险中性各阶矩的期限结构中是否包含有助于预测市场收益率和波动率的有效信息。采用偏最小二乘回归(PLS)的数据降维方法,我们发现:在 2015 到 2020年样本期内,从 50ETF 期权的隐含方差和高阶矩的期限结构中所提取的因子能显著地样本外预测未来 2 至 8 周的市场收益,且该预测能力在控制了常见的经济预测变量后仍十分显著。并且,从期权隐含方差的期限结构中所提取的因子能样本外预测市场波动。基于上述市场收益率和波动率预测的择时策略可以给投资者带来显著的经济价值。我们的实证分析表明:有别于已有文献中的经济预测变量,50ETF 期权市场可为投资者提供关于市场收益与风险之间短期权衡关系的特有信息。
  • 详情 Foreign Ownership and the Risk Behavior of Chinese Banks:Do Foreign Strategic Investors Matter?
    Great credit risk is a big headache which blocks the development of the banking sector of China. Based on the panel data of the Chinese banking sector from 2002 to 2006, this paper empirically examines the effects of foreign strategic investors’ participation on the risk behavior of Chinese banks. The results show that foreign strategic investors (FSI) had a positive, but limited impact on the credit risk of Chinese banks. Further analysis reveals that the risk management abilities of Chinese banks have improved apparently when the proportion of shareholding of the leading foreign strategic investors exceeds 15 percent, which results in a significant drop of the credit risk. However, due to the ‘minority ownership’ restriction on foreign investors' stock shares, the positive effect of the participation of foreign strategic investors is limited. The visible decline in both non-performing loans (NPLs) and the NPL ratio of Chinese banks mainly reflects the rapid growth of China's economy and benefits a lot from the massive financial restructuring of state-owned banks.
  • 详情 银行不良贷款在合作与不合作的情况下的博弈分析
    Nonperforming loans(NPLS) is the main cause of crises of bank and financial industry. High NPLS have important influence on bank and a country. The dissertation researches behavior of commercial bank manager (constituent or principal) and Enterprise manager (agent) about NPLS. Conclusion is drawn from the paper: bank NPLS originating in cooperative game is not easier than non-cooperative game when we don’t take into account market risk and budget soft restriction.
  • 详情 WHAT CAN CHINA’S BANKING SECTOR LEARN FROM THE ASIAN CRISIS?
    Although the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) has been over for many years, the influences of the AFC remain effect the world economy for quite severely. So it is worthy for both the governors and academic to study the lessons from the AFC and then find out some measures to avoid the happening of the crisis. This paper first analyze the causes of the financial crisis and the causes of the AFC, points out the impacts of China, which is the largest transition country in the world and has the situation similar with these Asian countries. This paper also point out some of the measures China can implement to accelerate the restructuring of the banking system.