Deregulation may increase bank stability. Employing China’s loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) reform in 2015, we show that the deregulation of the LDR increases the stability of banks. Specifically, the deregulation of the LDR alleviates banks’ deposit competition, and decreases reliance on customer deposit funding. By doing so, it improves the loan structure among banks with a high LDR, which, in turn, increases the on-balance-sheet stability of these banks. Meanwhile, the deregulation of the LDR curbs high-LDR banks’ impulse to issue principal-floating wealth management products, a form of shadow banking, which thus increases their off-balance-sheet stability.

在银行4.0时代，银行已不再是一个“地方”，而是一种“行为”。未来银行将对产品、障碍、人工和封闭一一告别，成为一种“即时的、情景式的体验、无障碍的互动”。在此视野下，通过对商业银行战略定位、组织架构、颠覆创新、市场竞争等方面进行分析，解读商业银行开启“第二曲线”的重大意义，并总结对现实的启示，为更好地理解与践行“第二曲线”提供理论与实践参考。

The inelastic markets hypothesis states that the aggregate stock market price elasticity of demand is small, implying that flows have large impacts on prices. We exploit demand shocks created as investor funds are frozen and unfrozen during Chinese IPOs to estimate the impact of demand shocks on the Chinese stock market. Using brokerage account records, we observe the selling and buying as investors raise cash to subscribe for IPOs and then reinvest the funds that supported unsuccessful subscriptions. Using an instrumental variables estimator we find that a 10 bps demand shock increases stock prices by between 30 and 48 bps.

本文立足我国股票市场的两次注册制改革，运用事件分析法，考察我国主板、科创板与创业板实施注册制前后的变化。我们首先对比了注册制实施后，主板、科创板与创业板上市公司效率的差异，然后从财务风险因素与企业性质两个角度对注册制实施后，各板块上市公司的定价效率进行了探讨，研究发现：第一，两次注册制改革对主板、创业板和科创板都产生了正面影响，除了创业板注册制改革的短期影响外，财务风险较小的公司的市场表现均更好；第二，与非国企相比，国企对于两次改革事件的反应均更为负面；第三，创业板上市公司在第二次注册制改革事件中表现出更为优异的市场表现，而科创板上市公司在第一次注册制改革中表现出负面的短期反应以及正面的长期反应。我们的研究表明，注册制实施对我国不同板块的影响存在显著差异，可为未来股票市场全面实行注册制改革的政策运用和路径选择提供一定的决策参考。

To construct the foreign exchange market defense line, I propose the following methods: (1) Compete for market focus, improve verbal intervention and news tactics (2) Quickly create several market-leading data that is in our control (3) Update the foreign exchange regulatory strategy, replace the original routine intervention with segmented intervention. (4) Use the anchor antidote in defending The U.S. launched the exercise as early as March 2009 organized by a team composed of the U.S. Department of Defense, the Department of Commerce, the Department of Energy, the RAND Corporation, the Peterson Institute, and Wall Street people. They took China as an imaginary enemy to conduct drills as possible conflicts would happen in the derivative and foreign exchange market in the future. If we hesitate in the construction of the foreign exchange market defense line, the damage may be on the overall situation.

对于外汇市场防线的建设，笔者特提出以下建设方法： （一）争夺市场焦点，完善口头干预和新闻战术 （二）抓紧创立我方可控的几个市场主导数据 （三）更新汇市调控策略，以分段式干预取代原有的常规干预。 （四）防守时，运用锚点解毒剂。 创立市场可控的主导数据相对紧迫。美国方面早在2009年的3月份就展开演习，由美国国防部，商务部，能源部，兰德公司，彼得森研究所，华尔街人士组成的团队，将中国作为假想敌，对未来可能出现的衍生品市场对抗，汇率战等问题展开演练。如果我们在外汇市场防线的建设上犹豫，有损的将可能是大局。

本文使用事件研究法利用一分钟间隔的交易数据，结合 VECM 模型和 BEKKGARCH 模型检验不同类型的中美贸易摩擦事件冲击是否改变了离在岸汇率的联动机制。研究发现：无论是利空事件还是利好事件，事件前后离在岸汇率之间始终存在协整关系，且离岸汇率占据主导地位，当二者出现偏离时多数情况下在岸汇率向离岸汇率靠拢，且离岸汇率始终是在岸汇率的格兰杰原因；事件冲击显著增大了离岸汇率对来自在岸汇率的脉冲响应程度。当中美爆发贸易冲突并对人民币汇率产生冲击时，离在岸汇率的波动率会显著增强，此时在岸汇率向离岸汇率的波动溢出效应变得更加显著，事件冲击增强了在岸汇率向离岸市场汇率的波动溢出效应。此外，利空消息与利好消息产生的上述影响并没有显示出明显差别。

Using novel data from a stock forum, we analyze return extrapolation in the cross-section. Our findings indicate that extrapolators overreact to the returns but underreact to the fundamentals. The post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD) is more pronounced among firms with a high firm-level degree-of-extrapolation (DOX). Additionally, investors ask fewer questions about high-DOX firms’ fundamental information on official online interactive platforms. Extrapolation reduces the informativeness of stocks due to investors’ inattention to fundamentals. Furthermore, extrapolators’ overreaction to returns and underreaction to fundamentals increase stock price crash risks. These findings support explanations of extrapolation based on limited asymmetric attention.

Using the staggered introduction of regional specialized debt recovery courts as a quasi-natural experiment, we estimate the causal effect of law enforcement on financing cost of corporate bonds in China. With primary market issuing data, we show that the introduction of specialized courts reduces issuers’bond financing cost by 15%. The analysis of secondary market trading data confirms the results that the yield spreads of existing bonds reduce significantly. Exploring regional-, firm- and bond-level heterogeneity, we find the effects to be much stronger when ex-ante default risk is high. Our case-level analyses further support that enforcement cost reduction in debt dispute resolution is a channel for the reduction of cost of bond. Our paper has important policy implications in light of the recent bond default wave in China, suggesting that creditors protection through highly efficient law enforcement is important for bond market development and will eventually benefit bond issuers as well.

The finance–growth nexus has been a central question in understanding the unprecedented success of the Chinese economy. With unique data on all the registered firms in China, we build extensive ownership networks, reflecting firm-to-firm equity investment relationships, and show that thesenetworks have been expanding rapidly since the 2000s, with more than five million firms in at least one network by 2017. Entering a network and increasing network centrality, both globally and locally, are associated with higher firm growth. Such positive network effects tend to be more pronounced for high productivity and privately owned firms. The RMB 4 trillion stimulus, mostly in the form of newly issued bank loans and launched by the Chinese government in November 2008 in response to the global financial crisis, partially ‘crowded out’ the positive network effects. Our analysis suggests that equity ownership networks and bank credit tend to act as substitutes for state-owned enterprises, but as complements for privately owned firms in promoting growth.