• 详情 兼并收购与劳动力技术升级
    本文研究了公司被并购对劳动力技术升级的影响。用中国上市公司 2000-2016 年的面板数据样本,在控制了公司相关变量以及年份和公司的固定 效应后,研究发现被并购后公司的劳动力总数、常规低技能劳动力数量、非常 规高技能劳动力数量均有增加,但是常规低技能劳动力占比显著减少,非常规 高技能劳动力占比显著增加。此外,公司中本科及以上学历的劳动力数量和比 例均有显著上升。在异质性分析中,研究发现并购对非国企比对国企对于劳动 力技术升级的影响更加显著,对高竞争行业中的公司对于劳动力技术升级的影 响同样更加显著。本文的结果在用工具变量解决了内生性后依然稳健。上述研 究结果表明,资本市场的并购活动对劳动力市场的技术升级有显著促进作用。
  • 详情 Adverse Selection in Credit Certificates: Evidence from a Peer-to-Peer Lending Platform
    Peer-to-Peer lending platforms encourage borrowers to obtain various credit certificates for information disclosure. Using unique data from one of China's largest Peer-to-Peer platforms, we show that borrowers of lower credit quality obtain more certificates to boost their credit profiles, while higher-quality ones do not. Uninformed credulous lenders take these nearly costless certificates as a positive signal to guide their nvestments. Consequently, loans applied by borrowers with more credit certificates have higher funding success but worse repayment performance. Overall, we document credit certificates fail to accurately signal borrowers' qualities due to adverse selection, resulting in distorted credit allocation and investment inefficiency.
  • 详情 Broadband Infrastructure and Digital Financial Inclusion in Rural China
    This paper examines the relationship between the large-scale construction of broadband infrastructure and digital financial inclusion in rural China. To make causal inferences, we exploit a quasi-natural experiment and use a difference-in-differences identification strategy with panel dataset of Chinese counties from 2014 to 2018. The results show that broadband infrastructure significantly contributes to digital inclusion. Further, we distinguish between two dimensions of digital inclusion, namely, the coverage and the usage. We find that while broadband infrastructure significantly promotes the coverage dimension, its effect on the usage dimension is limited. Besides, the effects of broadband infrastructure on digital inclusion, and in particular on the usage dimension, are larger in areas with higher levels of human capital, higher levels of social capital, and higher penetrations of bank branches. Taking into account those moderators is important to fully harness the potential of broadband infrastructure on financial inclusion.
  • 详情 股价崩盘风险、银行贷款 与公司现金政策
    本文以2005-2015年中国A股上市公司的数据为研究样本,探究了股价崩盘风险与公司银行贷款和现金政策的关系。研究发现,股价崩盘风险越高,公司所能获得的银行贷款规模越小、成本越高;与此同时,股价崩盘风险高的公司会选择更高的现金持有水平,相应的,现金持有的边际价值和现金-现金流敏感性也更高,上述结论在经过稳健性检验后依然成立;进一步的,股价崩盘风险与公司现金持有、现金持有边际价值和现金-现金流敏感性的正相关关系在信息不对称程度和外部资金依赖程度高的公司中更加显著。研究表明,股价崩盘作为信息不对称背景下公司隐藏负面信息的极端后果,银行一定程度上能够识别并在信贷决策上进行调整,而公司在外部融资渠道受阻的情况下会更加依赖内部融资,基于现金的预防性动机,选择更高的现金持有水平。本文不仅从融资决策的角度探讨了股价崩盘风险的经济后果及其可能的影响机制,同样拓展并丰富了银行信贷机制和公司流动性管理的相关
  • 详情 Media-driven Comovement: Evidence from China
    In this paper, using news reports and stock trading data from China, we document that stocks covered by the same media platform tend to comove together and refer to it as media-driven comovement. This finding remains significant both by conducting time series regressions of individual stock returns on co-coverage portfolio returns and by calculating the Pearson correlations among stocks that are co-covered by the same media platform. This is a novel type of comovement since it cannot be fully explained by common factors (e.g., additions to market indices) that lead to comovement but accords well with the investment habitat view. Besides, we find no statistically significant relationship between the frequency of co-coverage and the magnitude of comovement. To better illustrate the economic significance of this media-driven comovement, we construct a trading strategy which earns a monthly return of 115 basis point.
  • 详情 Air Pollution and Media Slant: Evidence from Chinese Corporate News
    This paper examines the impact of air pollution on media slant of public listed firms in China. Using air quality and media data at the city level, we find that lower air quality generally leads to lower media slant. When the air quality changes from lightly polluted to heavily polluted, the number of negative sentences increases by about 2%. Our subsample analysis shows that the effect of air pollution on media slant is similar for large and small firms but is stronger for non-SOE firms. Furthermore, the effect of air pollution on media slant is stronger for firms of non-heavily polluted industry than for firms in heavily polluted industries. These results suggest that air pollution affects media slant.
  • 详情 A Tale of Two “Skewness”: Professional Epidemic Experience, Probability Weighting, and Stock Price Crash Risk
    Skewness preference, the tendency to overweight the probability of extreme tail events, can affect managerial decision making. We find that Chinese listed firms managed by CEOs who experienced a largely unpredictable rare event, namely the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003, during their earlier executive careers have lower stock price crash risk measured by negative skewness. This effect especially matters for CEOs whose experienced events are more salient. Furthermore, professional epidemic experience induces CEOs to deter stock price crashes through altering financial reporting strategies. Overall, entrepreneurs’ skewness preference can reduce the negative skewness of stock returns.
  • 详情 代际职业流动能促进股市参与吗?——来自 CFPS 的证据
    本文结合中国家庭追踪调查 2012 年和 2014 年的数据,利用 Probit 模型实证分析了代际职业流动对家庭股市参与的影响。结果表明向上的代际职业流动能正向显著促进家庭股市参与。这一结论在考虑内生性、替换因变量、剔除极端值之后依然显著成立。进一步机制检验分析发现,代际职业流动会通过认知能力来影响股市参与。本文从代际职业流动视角切入,分析了影响股市参与的因素,丰富了相关理论研究,对于如何提高代际职业流动性,推进家庭参与股市也给出了建议。
  • 详情 Do Regular and Leveraged VIX Exchange-traded Products Track the VIX Index?
    VIX Exchange-traded Products (ETPs) provide tracking on the return of a constant-maturity VIX futures index, instead of the uninvestable VIX spot index. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive framework to analyze the behaviors and fundamental drivers of the tracking performance of regular and leveraged VIX ETPs. In this framework, naïve investors in VIX ETPs expect to achieve the ETP’s leverage ratio multiplied by the VIX return during their holding period, but the actual ETP return can deviate dramatically from this naïve expected return due to four components of return deviation. The index substitution deviation is shown to be the primary driver of the bull (inverse) VIX ETPs’ return erosion (enhancement), which can be explained by the negative roll-yield as a result of the contango term structure of VIX futures. For leveraged VIX ETPs over multiple holding days, the compounding deviation due to the “constant-leverage trap” can be sizable. In addition, the NAV deviation due to expense ratio and fund management issues is negative, and the inefficiency deviation doesn’t accumulate over long holding periods due to the creation/redemption feature. Our return deviation framework can be generalized to other ETPs tracking indices that are either uninvestable or unrealistic to replicate.
  • 详情 持有成本与期货最优套期保值
    本文应用一种新的套保方法,将套期保值由统计竞技恢复回衍生品定价的金融问题,简化了套保比率的估计,并避免了拼接期货合约等问题。针对黄金、股指、外汇和原油等四大类期货市场的实证研究,我们发现:如果将期货的定价与风险管理割裂开来,忽视期货合约的衍生品本性,各种复杂的套保估计方法,套保效率都不如简单套保;如果将定价理论融入套保实践,通过预测持有成本计算套保比率,套保效果将比简单套保更出色。此外,套保合约的选择方面,简单套保倾向于选择交割日较近的合约,而考虑定价约束的套保新方法,合约的选择不受到期日的影响。因此,套保比率的研究重心应该从期货与现货价格的统计关系转到持有成本的预测上来。