• 详情 投资者关系管理能提高亏损公司的价值吗——基于沪深股市的实证研究
    本文研究在不同控制权和经营环境下的投资者关系管理水平对公司价值的影响。将样本公司依据投资者关系管理水平和是否发布盈利预测划分子样本,结果表明,高IRM公司比低IRM公司具有更高的积累异常收益,发布盈利预测的公司比未发布盈利预测的公司具有更高的积累异常收益,而高IRM公司中提前发布盈利预测的公司市值损失最小。在考察投资者关系管理水平与股权结构的互相作用时发现,股权集中度对投资者关系管理水平具有负效应,而股权制衡度对于公司的决策和管理所能发挥的作用并不显著,无法有效起到制衡的作用。
  • 详情 市场能区分新会计准则下的不同信息吗?
    本研究考察了新会计准则对股票价格的影响。以与2006年年报同时披露的“新旧会计准则股东权益差异调节表”为对象,研究发现股票价格虽与新会计准则下股东权益的总额变化不相关,但将股东权益变化信息分为三类后,与未被市场预期且和未来收益相关的信息显著正相关。这一研究结果不仅表明新会计准则能对估值产生影响,而且揭示了市场能够在一定程度上区分新会计准则所带来的形式和实质的变化。
  • 详情 最终控制人所有权和控制权对企业财务失败预警的影响——配对方法与嵌套模型的应用
    本文通过在Taylor展开式基础上构建的嵌套logistic模型,研究最终控制人所有 权、控制权、两权分离以及最终控制人类型等信息对企业财务失败预警的影响。基于采用配对方法选择的研究样本的实证结果显示嵌套模型具有更高的拟合优度、更好的预警功效以及更强的稳健性。更为重要的是,研究发现,传统上对财务比率与企业财务失败预警之间存在稳定关系的理解并不成立,两者间关系取决于企业最终控制人的所有权和控制权结构以及最终控制人的类型,而导致稳定关系发生变化的主要原因是最终控制人为实现利益输送而采取的盈余管理行为。研究结论为上市公司所有权改革,增强财务信息透明度和质量提供了新的经验证据。
  • 详情 Assessing the Vulnerability of Emerging Asia to External Demand Shocks: The Role of China
    he paper assesses the vulnerability of China to external shocks via the indirect negative effect of a slow-down in exports on domestic demand for investment. In the last decade China has increased its dependence on external demand, particularly from the advanced countries; at the same time it has become a primary destination market for goods produced in the rest of emerging Asia. Since 2001 investment expenditures have represented a key driver of Chinese GDP growth; as a very large share of activity in the manufacturing sector is export oriented, we expect fixed capital investment in this sector to be highly related to exports. Overcoming serious shortcomings in available data, we estimate an investment equation for the period 1993-2006 and find an elasticity of investment to exports in the manufacturing sector in the range between 0.9 and 1. Taking into account the dominant contribution of capital accumulation to Chinese GDP growth, we conclude that the growth effects of an external demand shock could become significant when taking into account the domestic investment channel.
  • 详情 Honor Thy Creditors Beforan Thy Shareholders: Are the Profits of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises Real?
    The Chinese state owned enterprises (SOEs) have become quite profitable recently. As the largest shareholder, the state has not asked SOEs to pay dividends in the past. Therefore, some have suggested that the state should ask SOEs to pay dividends. Indeed, the Chinese government has adopted this policy advice and started to demand dividend payment starting from 2008. While we do not question the soundness of the dividend policy, the point we raise is whether those profits are real if all costs owned by SOEs are properly accounted for. Among other things, we are interested in investigating whether the profits of SOEs would still be as large as they claim if they were to pay a market interest rate. Using a representative sample of corporate China, we find that the costs of financing for SOEs are significantly lower than for other companies after controlling for some fundamental factors for profitability and individual firm characteristics. In addition, our estimates show that if SOEs were to pay a market interest rate, their existing profits would be entirely wiped out. Our findings suggest that SOEs are still benefiting from credit subsidies and they are not yet subject to the market interest rates. In an environment where credit rights are not fully respected, dividend policy, though important, should come second and not first. Keywords:
  • 详情 What Explains the Low Profitability of Chinese Banks?
    This paper analyzes empirically what explains the low profitability of Chinese banks for the period 1997-2004. We find that better capitalized banks tend to be more profitable. The same is true for banks with a relatively larger share of deposits and for more X-efficient banks. In addition, a less concentrated banking system increases bank profitability, which basically reflects that the four state-owned commercial banks - China’s largest banks - have been the main drag for system’s profitability. We find the same negative influence for China’s development banks (so called Policy Banks), which are fully state-owned. Instead, more market oriented banks, such as joint-stock commercial banks, tend to be more profitable, which again points to the influence of government intervention in explaining bank performance in China. These findings should not come as a surprise for a banking system which has long been functioning as a mechanism for transferring huge savings to meet public policy goals.
  • 详情 The Impact of a Common Currency on East Asian Production Networks and China's Exports Behavior
    Vertical fragmentation of product value chain across borders is the driving force of growing economic interdependency in East Asia. A common currency, not flexible exchange rates between national currencies, would reduce flexibility in relative prices within East Asia. Its impact would be far greater for exports that have stronger production network linkage. In order to test the hypothesis, the paper estimates the effect of a common currency on China's processing and ordinary exports separately. The distinction is necessary because the processing exports, unlike the ordinary exports, are produced along the regional production networks, with final stages of assembly and exporting being increasingly concentrated in China. The short-run dynamics indicate that the effect on China's processing exports is more than double the corresponding effect on China's ordinary exports. The long-run effect on the processing exports of intra-regional RER flexibility, which is otherwise the lack of a regional currency, is almost nine times as large as the long-run effect of a unilateral RMB appreciation. By contrast, the corresponding long-run effect is statistically insignificant for the case of ordinary exports that are produced primarily by using local inputs. The long-run coefficient of this intra-regional RER flexibility implies that the actual volume of processing exports is 20 percent below the potential. The magnitudes of these effects are consistent with the hypothesis that a common currency would further integrate East Asian production networks and promote regional economic integration.
  • 详情 Country of Origin Effects in Capital Structure Decisions: Evidence from Foreign Direct Investments in China
    We investigate the role of managers' country of origin in leverage decisions using data on foreign joint ventures in China. By focusing on foreign joint ventures in a single country, we are able to hold constant the financing environment, eliminate the effects of formal institutions in the foreign managers' home country, and consequently reveal the effects of informal institutions such as national culture on corporate finance decisions. Using cultural values of embeddedness, mastery, and uncertainty avoidance to explain country of origin effects, we find that national culture has significant explanatory power in the financial leverage decisions of foreign joint ventures in China. Country-level variation is evident in capital structure and appears to work through choices of firm characteristics, industry affiliation, ownership structure, and region of investment.
  • 详情 Government Incentives, Top Management Turnover and Accounting Information: Evidence from China's Soes
    This paper investigates control mechanism and accounting information used for control mechanism, shaped by government incentives for business. Using a sample of China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) from 2001 to 2005, it finds that the likelihood of top management turnover in China's SOEs, which is an important aspect of corporate control mechanism, is inversely associated with two types of accounting information of firm performance, firm-specific accounting performance and relative accounting performance, which is induced by the interests of Chinese government for the economic performance and political competition. Further, this paper finds that relative accounting performance, especially regional relative accounting performance, receives more weight in turnover decisions if a SOE is a local monopolistic firm or in local monopoly, because relative performance measure could offer a relatively simple benchmark for local government to assess manager's quality and provide stronger incentive scheme in China's political environment. By seeking deeper understanding into government incentives, the findings imply that induced by government incentives, effective corporate governance which is based on distinguished characteristics of accounting information exists in an economy highly involved by government.