• 详情 台资企业的资本结构特征、融资偏好及影响因素——基于问卷调查数据的研究
    本文采用问卷研究方法对大苏州地区的台资企业进行了关于融资行为的问卷调查,获取了第一手的台资企业(研究样本)财务资料。进而,本文基于所获得的调查数据上对台资企业的资本结构、融资偏好及其影响因素进行了详细而深入的研究。研究结果显示:台资企业的负债融资主要是依靠经营性负债和(或)短期性借款;向金融机构借款的比率并不高,且借款形式以短期借款为主;台资企业的融资偏好特征符合优序融资理论,而不符合权衡理论,尤其是,台资企业在进行融资决策时所考虑因素的重要性依次排名(前四位)为:投资项目、财务宽松(或破产风险)、资金成本、股东控制权,与优序融资理论的观点有着“惊人”的一致。另外,基于实证模型的研究结果表明,台资企业的盈利性是唯一显著地影响他们偏好内部资金的因素,而当他们在外部融资时,企业的规模和所持有的可抵押资产等两因素则显著地影响了他们对负债资金和权益资金的选择。
  • 详情 The Theoretical Logic of Sovereign Wealth Funds
    Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) form a new class of institutional investors with significant influence on the global financial market. Assets under management (AUM) of global SWFs totaled around US$3.0 trillion at the end of 2007, and are still rising. Three developments are behind the current cause of SWFs: First, reform of international monetary system is the core reason for the rise in SWFs; Secondly, the phenomenal raise of energy price is an important reason contributing in the expansion of SWFs; finally, the economic globalization facilitates SWFs’ operation. According to the model of "National Economic Man" model, the foreign reserve of a nation will increase sharply and gradually this nation will invest surplus wealth during the economic stage of early expansion or fast-growing stage. Whereas, with the decreasing of the production factors, accumulated wealth of a nation will gradually attain to peak. When the economy enters into wealth-oriented stage or the stage of sustainable low growth, the nation will increasingly rely on wealth accumulated by consumption, and incline to invest in risk-free assets. At present, the aims of SWFs are mainly focused on the following five aspects, including stabilization the national balance sheet for different periods, diversification of the central bank's reserves, smoothening inter-generation revenue of country, prevention of national socio-economic crisis and assistance of the government’s overall development strategy.
  • 详情 Sovereign Wealth Funds, Macroeconomic Policy Alignment and Financial Stability
    This paper firstly discusses alignment of SWFs with macroeconomic policy. We believe that SWFs can become an effective tool for fiscal policy; SWF investments should be made in alignment with the monetary authority, and help stabilize the exchange rate. SWFs also contribute to stability of the national balance sheet. Asset allocation of SWFs has significant impacts on the current and capital accounts of both domestic and international balance sheets. Secondly, this paper explores the impacts of SWFs on the global financial market and its stability, including those on asset bubbles, equity risk premium and financial market stability. We argue that the potential negative impact of SWFs on the global financial market is very limited, and that they are important stabilizing forces in the global financial market. We believe that SWFs contribute to the coordination of macroeconomic policy from a domestic point of view and to the stability of global financial market from an international point of view.
  • 详情 论主权财富基金的理论逻辑
    主权财富基金是国际金融市场一类崭新的有影响力的机构投资者。全球的主权财富基金的现有规模大概在3万亿美元左右。其规模还将继续不断增长。从主权财富基金兴起的原因看,首先,国际货币体系的变革是主权财富基金兴起的根本原因;其次,能源价格上涨是导致主权财富基金规模扩张的重要原因;最后,经济全球化为主权财富基金的运作提供了良好的环境。根据“国家经济人模型”,国家在经济发展的初期和高增长阶段,外汇储备迅速增加,国家逐步将盈余财富用于投资。然而,随着生产要素的消耗,国家积累的财富逐步达到顶峰。当国家经济进入富裕导向阶段或稳定低增长阶段时,国家需要消费积累的财富,投资也倾向于无风险资产。目前看,各国设立主权财富基金主要有五方面目标:(1)跨期平滑国家收入;(2)协助中央银行分流外汇储备;(3)跨代平滑国家财富;(4)预防国家社会经济危机;(5)支持国家发展战略。
  • 详情 主权财富基金、宏观经济政策协调与金融稳定
    本文首先探讨了主权财富基金与宏观经济政策的协调,提出主权财富基金可成为财政政策一个行之有效地政策工具;主权财富基金的投资应与货币当局进行充分的协调,其投资对稳定汇率有一定作用;主权财富基金有利于提高国家资产负债表的稳定性;主权财富基金的资产配置对于本国以及投资国的国际收支平衡表中的经常账户和资本账户都有重要的影响。其次,本文探讨了主权财富基金对全球金融市场及其稳定性的影响,主要包括主权财富基金的风险偏好对资产价格的影响、对全球资产风险-收益组合的影响以及对股票风险溢价的影响以及对金融市场稳定性的影响。本文认为,主权财富基金对世界金融市场可能带来的负面影响是很有限的,它是全球金融市场的重要稳定力量。主权财富基金对内有利于宏观经济政策的协调,对外有利于全球金融市场的稳定。
  • 详情 信任与担忧:中国共同基金业执业能力评价
    对共同基金的执业能力的评价不仅可以帮助投资者进行科学的投资决策,同时还可以为管理层的政策制定提供理论依据。本文基于中国资本市场中共同基金的全部数据样本和全部时间周期,从讨论三个经典模型的科学性角度出发,比较不同模型实证结果的合理性,并对我国共同基金业的执业能力给出更加全面的评估。实证结果表明,我国共同基金业整体上不具备应有的执业能力;开放式基金的执业能力并没有明显优于封闭式基金;熊市中发行的共同基金整体上执业能力强于牛市中发行的基金。因此,建议管理层在共同基金发行的速度控制上,尽量避免在牛市中大量推出基金,而是应该在熊市中加大共同基金的发行力度,且不能简单地认为我国未来共同基金业的主流发展方向就是发展开放基金。
  • 详情 封闭式基金与股指期货套利交易的可行性分析
    本文首先对股指期货期现套利交易的原理进行概述,然后利用HS300指数与封闭式基金两年的历史数据,采用线性回归方法得出两者的相关性、相对风险系数,最后运用Johansen协整检验方法验证了基金组合与HS300指数的长期均衡性,根据跟踪误差最小化的原则确定基金组合的权重,由此论证了封闭式基金与股指期货套利交易的可行性。
  • 详情 中国开放式基金市场环境偏差效应研究
    市场环境偏差效应是指在基金绩效评估中忽视“市场环境信息”可能导致人们对基金绩效进行错误估计的现象。本文使用Pastor-Stambaugh方法,选取2002年1月-2007年12月期间130只开放式股票型基金的数据,来考察我国开放式基金的市场环境偏差效应问题。研究结果表明,我国开放式基金存在显著的市场环境偏差效应,市场环境信息对基金绩效度量有着重要影响。在使用Pastor-Stambaugh方法和市场环境信息对常用基金绩效指标进行进行修正后,基金绩效度量偏差有所减小,绩效排序不一致性问题也有所改善。
  • 详情 开放式基金流动和个股收益关系的实证分析
    本文通过构建度量流动变量的模型来研究开放式基金流动和股票收益之间的关系,研究发现开放式基金流动和股票收益之间存在着负相关的关系,流动越高的股票的未来收益越低,反之,流动越低股票的未来收益越高。通过对流动效应和价值效应以及动量效应做比较,发现他们是互不包含的影响基金收益的因素,这更加强调了基金流动和股票收益之间关系的稳定性。
  • 详情 The Theoretical Logic of Sovereign Wealth Funds
    Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) form a new class of institutional investors with significant influence on the global financial market. Assets under management (AUM) of global SWFs totaled around US$3.0 trillion at the end of 2007, and are still rising. Three developments are behind the current cause of SWFs: First, reform of international monetary system is the core reason for the rise in SWFs; Secondly, the phenomenal raise of energy price is an important reason contributing in the expansion of SWFs; finally, the economic globalization facilitates SWFs’ operation. According to the model of "National Economic Man" model, the foreign reserve of a nation will increase sharply and gradually this nation will invest surplus wealth during the economic stage of early expansion or fast-growing stage. Whereas, with the decreasing of the production factors, accumulated wealth of a nation will gradually attain to peak. When the economy enters into wealth-oriented stage or the stage of sustainable low growth, the nation will increasingly rely on wealth accumulated by consumption, and incline to invest in risk-free assets. At present, the aims of SWFs are mainly focused on the following five aspects, including stabilization the national balance sheet for different periods, diversification of the central bank's reserves, smoothening inter-generation revenue of country, prevention of national socio-economic crisis and assistance of the government’s overall development strategy.