• 详情 日本要求人民币升值的背后.
    日本要求人民币升值的原因主要是认为,中国实行的“盯住”美元的货币政策,美元的持续贬值,而人民币对美元汇率保持不变,使得出口量急剧膨胀。换句话说,中国正在不断的向其输出“通货紧缩”。 一,分析中国出口急剧增长原因为:外商对中国的投资增长是中国出口增长的直接原因。 二,日本通货紧缩由来已久:回顾日本“泡沫经济”的产生,引出通货紧缩由来。 三,分析日本通货紧缩成因: 1,日本金融体系的不健全性 2,日本政府对金融的渗透 3,日本经济政策过失 接着引出:日本为了刺激出口而开始贬低其币值,但经济未能复苏,但此时日元贬值的空间已经很小,所以只有通过提高他国币值达到日元的相对再贬值。 最后评价了日本的做法的不恰当性。
  • 详情 中国银行业公司业务产品组合深化路径
    客户、产品和地域,是银行业务发展中的3项关键要素。在客户和地域战略确定之后,银行实现自己战略目标之关键,在于提供满足客户需要的产品和服务组合,及对这一组合在深度、广度和内在一体化上的不断深化发展。本文拟根据中国银行业这个特殊群体所处的业务发展阶段和客户市场特征,分析中国的商业银行特别是其中提供全面金融服务的大型银行,在从事公司业务时,应当采取的产品组合深化路径。
  • 详情 股权结构、投资者保护与公司绩效
    本文将股权结构、投资者保护与公司绩效纳入一个统一的框架体系进行研究。与以往研究不同的是,本文建立了在投资者保护程度不同的条件下,股权结构分别对公司绩效和代理成本影响的模型,并以2000年深、沪642家上市公司为研究对象进行实证检验。研究结果表明,股权结构对公司绩效作用的强弱受到投资者保护程度的影响。当投资者保护增强时,大股东对管理者的监督力度降低;当投资者保护减弱时,情况则相反。这表明大股东的存在可以作为投资者保护的一种替代机制。鉴于此,国有股减持的改革不能盲目进行,而应以良好的投资者法律保护为前提,同时应积极培育具有监督作用的大股东。
  • 详情 Options valuation.
    This paper deals with the option-pricing problem. In the first part of the paper we study in more details the discrete setting of the option-pricing problem usually referred to as the binomial scheme. We highlight basic differences between the old and the new approaches. The main qualitative distinction of the new pricing approach from either binomial or Black Scholes’s is that it represents the option price as a stochastic process. This stochastic interpretation can not give straightforward advantage for an investor due to stochastic setting of the pricing problem. The new approach explicitly states that the options price is more risky than represented by binomial scheme or Black Scholes theory. Continuous setting will be considered in the second part of the paper following [1]. One significant conclusion follows from the new model. It states that there is no sense in using either neutral probabilities or ‘neutral world’ applications for options valuation either theoretically or numerically. Recall that after the Black Scholes’ publication [2] the ‘simplified’ approach named later binomial scheme was introduced in [3]. In this paper referring to the historical tradition we first represent discrete scheme. In several examples we discuss two-period plain vanilla option valuation. Then we extend the discrete scheme applications to an exotic option-pricing referred to as a compound option. The compound option in Black Scholes setting was first studied in [4] and then in [5,6]. To highlight the difference between stochastic and deterministic option price definitions note that if a deterministic value is interpreted as a perfect or fair price we can comment that the stochastic interpretation provides this number or any other with the probability that real world option value at maturity will be bellow chosen number. This probability is a pricing risk of the option. Thus with an investor’s motivation of the option pricing the stochastic approach gives information about the risk taking. The investor analyzing option price and corresponding risk makes a decision to purchase the option or not. As far as this paper presents alternative point on option pricing it might be useful to present a short history of this development. Recall that according the US law institutions must provide clients by the risk information regarding client’s prospective on their investments. This circumstance implies importance new approach measuring risk of investments. Different parts of this paper were submitted and sent to journals, conferences, and prominent professors. The third part of the paper was sent to Federal Reserve from the Congressman office and simple examples showing drawbacks of the benchmark option valuation method were submitted to SEC in August 2002.
  • 详情 实施QFII后发展中国股指期货的对策建议
    股指期货是20世纪80年代发展起来的新型投资工具,具有价格发现、规避风险、投机、套利等功能,能够有效完善证券市场的功能与机制。尽管受到1987年美国股市崩溃的影响而陷于为期近两年的停滞阶段,但90年代以来,随着网络革命的兴起和全球资本市场一体化以及机构投资者的崛起,股指期货已经成为全球金融衍生品市场中最具活力的组成部分,在国际金融市场中的地位与作用越来越重要。随着中国证券市场规模的不断扩大和机构投资者的成长以及实施QFII之后,对通过股指期货等金融创新工具来推动市场深化的要求日益迫切。本文考察了推出中国股指期货的现实需求、分析了股指期货对现货市场的影响及其与国际股灾的关系,最后提出了目前发展中国股指期货的对策建议。
  • 详情 银行全球业务发展的新型组织结构-三维战略业务单位(SBU)模式初探
    主要全球化大银行已经开始了按照客户群重组银行业务的历程。客户型组织结构的最大挑战在于如何在客户与产品线及地域之间取得协调。银行在解决这一矛盾的实践中,已经形成了几种管理模式比较具有代表性的,采用得较为广泛的则是以花旗集团为代表的矩阵(Matrix)模式。而荷兰银行(ABN AMRO Bank)在3年前又推出了创新模式:战略业务单位(Strategic Business Nuit,以下简称SBU)组织管理结构。本文旨在对荷兰银行首创的这一全新组织结构和内部管理 的新模式作初步分析评估。
  • 详情 IPO Underpricing, Issue Mechanisms, and Size
    This paper studies the pricing of IPOs in the Indian context. The paper also examines whether the introduction of Bookbuilding has an impact on IPO pricing. The results suggest that IPO are underpriced. The results also suggest that bookbuilt IPOs show lower amount of underpricing than fixed price issues,. A more detailed study suggests that it has to do more with the size of the issue than the issue process. The paper also suggests a model, which demonstrates that IPO underpricing is unavoidable in a market with information asymmetry. The model predicts that the underpricing is more severe in case of smaller size issues. This is consistent with the empirical findings.
  • 详情 The Literature Reviews of Contemporary Banking Theories and the Implications for Retail Ba
    This paper reviews the two most important papers of contemporary banking theories: Contemporary Banking Theory (Bhattacharya et al 1993) and Theories of the Banking Firm: A Review of the Literature (Swank 1996), which focus on dealing with the question of why banks exist, and how the banks behavior. These two papers have valuable practical implications for the management of the retail banks, especially the theories of the risk management, the portfolio models, liquidity and maturity transformations, etc. This essay discussed the implications of the theories of retail banking and the developments of the retail banking.
  • 详情 铺设一条银行信贷资金进出股票市场的通道
    本文旨在讨论如何铺设一条银行信贷资金进出股票市场的通道,让日益增长的居民储蓄存款通过商业银行、证券公司进出股票市场,有条件地贷给愿意以持股方式进行投资的个人。以期通过增加筹资来源,补充上市公司的资金实力,在投资领域里缓解目前内需不足的压力;充实中央银行调控经济运行的政策工具,视股票市场冷暖和民间投资多寡,调节商业银行信贷资金的流向和流量。
  • 详情 微利时代发展票据业务的思考
    近年来,票据贴现、转贴现利率节节走低,基层行应理性认识票据市场变化,积极应对同业竞争。 一、对票据业务前景要充满信心。市场经济的不断深化,企业以成本为中心的融资思路,必然促进票据业务的发展。大力拓展票据业务还有利于降低银行资产风险,有利于激活银行与企业、银行与银行、商业银行与人民银行的资金融通,提高金融资产的盈利性、安全性和流动性。 二、对票据业务现状要认真分析。票据市场竞争日益充分;股份制商业银行的比较优势日渐明显;其他国有独资商业银行开始效仿工商银行的票据经营模式。 三、基层行应对市场变化所需的策略调整。加快周转,减少占用;规模运作,以量促利;贴现为主,转贴现为辅;拓宽视野,培育票源。 四、持久发展票据业务的政策建议 。进一步营造发展票据业务的氛围;进一步落实发展票据业务的政策;进一步研究发展票据业务的创新;进一步强化发展票据业务的控制。