• 详情 离岸银行业务和离岸金融中心的发展
    离岸银行业务或银行离岸业务(Offshore Banking),是商业银行业务中最具争议,同时对客户和银行也最具吸引力的一项特殊业务。本文拟就现代离岸银行业务和离岸金融中心的形成、发展、现状和趋势,监管环境变化,以及银行的运作和对策作一些分析。
  • 详情 Decomposing the Default Risk and Liquidity
    This paper develops a reduced form model of interest rate swap spreads. The model accommodates both the default risk inherent in swap contracts and the liquidity difference between the swap and Treasury markets. We use an extended Kalman Þlter approach to estimate the model parameters. The model Þts the swap rates well. We then solve for the implied general collateral repo rates and use them to decompose the swap spreads into their default risk and liquidity components. This exercise shows that the default risk and liquidity components of swap spreads behave very differently: although default risk accounts for the largest share of the levels of swap spreads, the liquidity component is much more volatile. In addition, while the default risk component has been historically positive, the liquidity component was negative for much of the 1990s and has become positive since the Þnancial market turmoils in 1998.
  • 详情 我国现代银行监管需要注意的几个问题
    我国银行业即将全面对外开放和走向世界,这给现代银行监管提出了许多新课题。适应新形势发展的需要,需要高度重视现代银行监管,努力改善现代银行监管的基础条件;要分析了解我国银行业开放及银行业竞争力现状,研究提高我国银行业的整体竞争力的途径;要善于“洋为中用”,努力增强银行业机构真正的竞争优势;要顺应国际银行监管潮流,加快与国际惯例接轨步伐;要评估我国银行监管的现状,努力增强监管有效性。
  • 详情 中国股票市场系统风险的生成与化解
    中国股票市场高系统性风险根源在于中国股票市场上市的企业的平均质量的“柠檬化”,而这种上市企业“柠檬化”又是中国转型过程中发展股票市场的功能定位所“内生”的,而在充斥“柠檬”上市企业的股票市场上的股票交易必然会是一种投机行为,此种投机交易强化了我国股票市场的系统风险。因此,化解中国股票市场高系统性风险的一种重要的路径选择就是矫正发展股票市场的功能定位,改进上市企业的治理结构,向非国有企业和外资企业全面开放,允许符合上市标准的非国有企业和外资企业在中国股票市场上市。
  • 详情 中国商业银行业市场结构的实证研究
    本文运用目前国际上在银行业市场结构研究方面所广泛采用的两类指标――市场集中率和H指数,对中国目前十四家全国性商业银行业的市场结构特点进行量化分析,得到中国银行业正由高度集中的寡头垄断型市场结构向竞争性较强的垄断竞争型市场结构转变的重要结论。该结论不仅揭示了以商业银行为代表的中国金融市场竞争程度的演变,而且为WTO下中国商业银行业竞争力的提升以及中国金融市场化的各项改革的推进提供了现实依据
  • 详情 我国股票市场的货币政策传导功能的实证研究
    本文研究我国股票市场是否能够作为货币政策的一个传导渠道问题。文章分别从货币政策与股票市场的关系和股票市场与宏观经济变量(消费和投资)的关系这两个环节进行实证分析。第一环节的研究发现,货币供给量对股票价格走势有显著的影响;股票交易量和股票价格对货币需求也有一定的影响。第二环节的研究发现,股票市场虽然还不具有财富效应,但已显示出一定的投资效应。由此证明了我国股票市场已经具有一定的传导货币政策的功能。最后我们认为当前阶段货币政策应该密切关注股票市场的动向,但不应该直接干预股票市场的走势。
  • 详情 按揭贷款还款方式的比较分析
    近段时间以来,各种媒体期刊上关于住房按揭贷款的两种还款方式:“等额本息”(即等额还款法)和“等额本金”(即递减还款法)的争论如火如荼。争论的一个焦点问题在于两者的利息差额。本文从实证的角度证明,对银行来说,在同样的贷款利率下,对于两种还款方式,银行的收益是一样的;但对消费则而言则不同。因为消费者资金的使用收益可能低于也可能高于银行的贷款利率。因而消费者在考虑还款方式时,应该考虑到自身的实际情况。如果消费者是个保守的理财者可以考虑使用递减还款法;反之,如果消费者的理财方式比较激进,则可以考虑使用等额还款法。
  • 详情 Out-of-Sample Performance of Discrete-Time Spot Interest Rate Models
    We provide a comprehensive analysis of the out-of-sample performance of a wide variety of spot rate models in forecasting the probability density of future interest rates. While the most parsimonious models perform best in forecasting the conditional mean of many financial time series, we find that the spot rate models that incorporate conditional heteroskedasticity and excess kurtosis or heavy-tails have better density forecasts. GARCH significantly improves the modeling of the conditional variance and kurtosis, while regime switching and jumps improve the modeling of the marginal density of interest rates. Our analysis shows that the sophisticated spot rate models in the existing literature are important for applications involving density forecasts of interest rates.
  • 详情 Relative Value and Under-Pricing of IPOs in China
    We try to explain the severe under-pricing of 523 A-share IPOs in the Chinese markets from 1997 to 2001 using institutional characteristics, absolute value, and relative value of IPO. We find that relative values of IPO are critical determinants of the severe under-pricing of A-share IPOs in China. We also find that relaxing government regulation of offering price increases under-pricing, and thus conclude that the severe under-pricing of A-share IPOs in China is not caused by the government regulation of offering price. We propose a relative value theory to explain why relaxing government regulation of offering price results in higher under-pricing and find some support for the theory.
  • 详情 An Empirical Analysis on the Liquidity Values of the Non-floating Shares Based on Artifici
    In this paper we use artificial neural network (ANN) to empirically analyze the liquidity values of the non-floating shares and the influencing factors to China’s stock market in the background of China’s listed companies split share stricture reform. We try to use a proportion which the company’s non-floating shareholders offer compensation to the floating shareholders to test the liquidity values of the non-floating shares and use MATLAP establish a feed-forward BP neural network model to analyze and forecast according to the data of the companies which have announced and actualized their split stricture reform plans. In expansion analysis, we use the perturbation method to measure the influence of these parameters on the liquidity values of the non-floating. As result, the character of the shares, the share structure and the ratio of the shares by the principal shareholder held are the main influencing factors.