所属栏目:银行与金融机构/风险管理

Spatio-Temporal Attention Networks for Bank Distress Prediction with Dynamic Contagion Pathways: Evidence from China
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发布日期:2026年03月01日 上次修订日期:2026年03月01日

摘要

This study develops a novel deep learning framework for bank distress prediction, designed to overcome the limitations of static network analysis and to enhance model interpretability. We propose a Spatio-Temporal Attention Network that uniquely captures the time-varying nature of systemic risk. Methodologically, it introduces two key innovations: (1) a dynamic interbank network whose connection weights are adjusted by the volatility of the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR), reflecting real-time market liquidity changes; and (2) a dual spatio-temporal attention mechanism that identifies critical time steps and pivotal contagion pathways leading to a distress event. Empirical results demonstrate that the model significantly outperforms traditional benchmarks across key metrics including accuracy and F1-score. Most critically, the architecture proves exceptionally effective at reducing Type II errors, substantially minimizing the failure to identify at-risk banks. The model also offers high interpretability, with attention weights visualizing intuitive risk evolution patterns. We conclude that incorporating dynamic, liquidity-adjusted networks is crucial for superior predictive performance in systemic risk modeling.
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Xia Hongyi; Gao Ni Spatio-Temporal Attention Networks for Bank Distress Prediction with Dynamic Contagion Pathways: Evidence from China (2026年03月01日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16595.html

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