所属栏目:资本市场/市场微观结构

How Capital Markets Read China's Marketization Signals Heterogeneously: A High-Frequency Approach to Institutional Change
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发布日期:2026年06月09日 上次修订日期:2026年06月09日

摘要

How do global and domestic investors process institutional signals in emerging markets? We use China’s refined-oil pricing announcements as institutional communications to construct high-frequencymarketization surprises as deviations between actual prices and formula-implied expectations (2013–2025). Three heterogeneous patterns emerge. First, a 1% deviation toward weaker marketization triggers $30m equity and $10m bond outflows internationally while domestic futures appreciate. Second, Kalman filtering extracts latent institutional information differing across markets, with near-zero correlation. Third, international responses amplify quarterly while domestic dissipate immediately. A+H dual-listed firm analysis reveals implicit guarantees and market segmentation jointly drive this divergence.
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Dan Li; Ziyan Yang How Capital Markets Read China's Marketization Signals Heterogeneously: A High-Frequency Approach to Institutional Change (2026年06月09日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16746.htm

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