所属栏目:资本市场/资产定价

摘要

This paper improves the expected return variable and the corresponding trend factor documented by Han, Zhou, and Zhu (2016) and reveals the incremental predictability of this novel expected return measure on stock returns in the Chinese stock market. Portfolio analyses and ffrm-level cross-sectional regressions indicate a signiffcantly positive relation between the improved expected return and future returns. These results are robust to the short-, intermediate-, and long-term price trends and other derived expected returns. Our improved trend factor also outperforms all trend factors constructed by other expected returns. Additionally, we observe that lottery demand, capital states, return synchronicity, investor sentiment and information uncertainty can help explain the superior performance of the improved expected return measure in the Chinese stock market.
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Jiangyuan Li; Chenye Liu; Chang Liu; Peng Sun Are Trend Factor in China? Evidence from Investment Horizon Information (2024年04月14日) http://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/15637.html

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