This study examines factors that determine prefectural industrial policies and their impact on firm total factor productivity (TFP), utilizing a natural language processing algorithm and data from the Report on the Work of the Government in China. We find that compliance with upper-level governments is crucial in shaping prefectural industrial policies. When an industry is favored by the upper-level government, the probability of the prefectural government’s favoring that industry increases. However, prefectural policies driven by political compliance have a minimal positive impact on TFP, due to inadequate implementation of policy measures like tax deductions, preferential loans, and land price discounts.