所属栏目:资本市场/市场有效性/2025/2025年第02期

摘要

Although sentiment-driven investors are believed to play an important role in the Chinese stock market, there are very few sentiment measures at the individual stock level based on their trading activities. Due to the unique “T+1” trading rule in China, the low overnight return of stocks reflects intensified trading activities from short-term speculators. Therefore, we construct a sentiment measure for individual stocks based on the close-to-open return (CTO). We find that CTO positively predicts future stock returns in the cross-section, supporting the idea that low CTO, as an indicator of sentiment-driven excess demand, leads to lower subsequent returns. This finding is not driven by firm-specific news and alternative explanations based on risks, investor attention, or investor underreaction. Further analyses suggest that investors overpay for low-CTO stocks because of their inherent preference for this type of stock.
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Jing-Zhi Huang; Zhijian (James) Huang; Zhuo Li; Fenghua Wen Return-Based Firm-Specific Sentiment Measure under the Unique 'T+1' Trading Rule in China (2024年09月13日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/dzqk/detail/15906

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