所属栏目:资本市场/投资组合与决策/2025/2025年第01期

摘要

Using a unique dataset from China spanning 2005 to 2023, we investigate how superstitious beliefs influence mutual fund managers’ risk-taking behavior and how this influence evolves over their careers. We find a significant 6.82% reduction in risk-taking during managers’ zodiac years, traditionally considered unlucky in Chinese culture. This effect is particularly pronounced among less experienced managers, those without financial education backgrounds, and those with lower management skills. The impact also intensifies during periods of high market volatility. Our findings challenge the traditional dichotomy between retail and professional investors, showing that even professional fund managers can be influenced by irrational beliefs early in their careers. However, the diminishing effect of superstition with experience and expertise suggests a gradual transition towards more rational decision-making. Our results provide insights into the process by which financial professionals evolve from exhibiting behavior akin to retail investors to becoming the rational actors often assumed in financial theory.
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李璟; 陈胜蓝; Cheng Yan; P. Raghavendra Rau Animal spirits: Superstitious behavior by mutual fund managers (2025年03月20日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/dzqk/detail/16168

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