所属栏目:资本市场/衍生证券

Does Futures Market Information Improve Macroeconomic Forecasting: Evidence from China
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发布日期:2025年06月25日 上次修订日期:2025年06月25日

摘要

This paper investigates the contribution of futures market information to enhancing the predictive accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts, using data from China. We employ three cat-egories of predictors: monthly macroeconomic factors, daily commodity futures factors, and daily financial futures variables. Principal component analysis is applied to extract key fac-tors from large data sets of monthly macroeconomic indicators and daily commodity futures contracts. To address the challenge of mixed sampling frequencies, these predictors are incor-porated into factor-MIDAS models for both nowcasting and long-term forecasting of critical macroeconomic variables. The empirical results indicate that financial futures data provide modest improvements in forecasting secondary and tertiary GDP, whereas commodity futures factors significantly improve the accuracy of PPI forecasts. Interestingly, for PMI forecast-ing, models relying exclusively on futures market data, without incorporating macroeconomic factors, achieve superior predictive performance. Our findings underscore the significance of futures market information as a valuable input to macroeconomic forecasting.
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Yuchen Zhu; Mingmian Cheng Does Futures Market Information Improve Macroeconomic Forecasting: Evidence from China (2025年06月25日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/index.php/lw/16281.htm

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