所属栏目:资本市场/资产定价

Jump, Non Normal Error Distribution and Stock Price Volatility- A Nonparametric Specification Test
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发布日期:2009年10月21日 上次修订日期:2009年10月21日

摘要

This paper examines a wide variety of popular volatility models for stock index return, including Random Walk model, Autoregressive model, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model, and extensive GARCH model, GARCH-jump model with Normal, and Student-t distribution assumption as well as nonparametric specification test of these models. We fit these models to Dhaka stock return index from November 20, 1999 to October 9, 2004. There has been empirical evidence of volatility clustering, alike to findings in previous studies. Each market contains different GARCH models, which fit well. From the estimation, we find that the volatility of the return and the jump probability were significantly higher after November 27, 2001. The model introducing GARCH jump effect with normal and Student-t distribution assumption can better fit the volatility characteristics. We find that that RW-GARCH-t, RW-AGARCH-t RW-IGARCH-t and RW-GARCH-M-t can pass the nonparametric specification test at 5% significance level. It is suggested that these four models can capture the main characteristics of Dhaka stock return index.
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MOHAMMAD MASUDUR RAHMAN; LAILA ARJUMAN ARA; Zhenlong Zheng Jump, Non Normal Error Distribution and Stock Price Volatility- A Nonparametric Specification Test (2009年10月21日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/12820.html

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