We examine the dynamic relation between return and volume of individual stocks in Russia
and other emerging markets. In a simple model in which investors trade to share risk or
speculate on private information, Llorente, Michaely, Saar, and Wang (2001) show that returns
generated by risk-sharing trades tend to reverse themselves while returns generated by private
information trades tend to continue themselves. We apply this theoretical framework to analyze
the relation between daily volume and first-order return autocorrelation for individual stocks
traded in Russia and other emerging markets. We find strong evidence of return continuation
following high volume days, suggesting the presence of private information trading in
emerging markets. Using corporate announcement data from Russia, we discover that the
private information trading is especially strong around major corporate event dates. In addition,
we find stocks in countries that enforce insider-trading law and provide better investor
protection exhibit less private information trading. These results suggest a possible measure of
“information asymmetry” for ranking emerging market stocks.
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