We examine the process of stock prices adjusting to information conveyed by the trading process.
Using the price impact of a trade to measure its information content, our analysis shows that the
weekly price impact of market transactions has significant cross-sectional predictive power for
returns in the subsequent week. The effect is sensitive to the level of informational asymmetry
and is not due to excess liquidity demands or variations in rational risk premia. This finding
suggests that prices may slowly incorporate trading information. We then characterize the key
channel through which price underreaction occurs. We find that the price impact contains
information that is not fully captured by public order flows and that a lead-lag effect exists
regarding the arrival of information to different groups of investors. Hong and Stein’s (1999) gradual-information-diffusion theory seems the most likely explanation for price underreaction.
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