This paper studies idiosyncratic risk of new ventures. An option-based model of
a new venture with multistage investments and jumps is developed. Our model ex-
plains (1) why new ventures?idiosyncratic volatility eventually decreases as they clear
R&D investment stages and become mature ?rms ?the stage-clearing e¤ect; (2) the
negative relation between jumps in value and subsequent idiosyncratic volatility ?the
jump e¤ect; (3) the dynamics of idiosyncratic volatility under di¤erent schedules of
staged venture capital investments; and (4) the e¤ect of di¤erent schedules of staged
investments on ?rm valuation with the presence of jumps. Empirically, we develop
a generalized Markov-Switching EARCH model to simultaneously capture structural
changes in ?rms?idiosyncratic volatility and the relation between jumps and idiosyn-
cratic volatility. Using a hand-collected dataset of early-stage biotech ?rms, we ?nd
empirical evidence supporting the jump e¤ect and the stage-clearing e¤ect described
by our model.
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