目的:研究人民币在澳门的流通情况,分析其流通可能受哪些因素的影响。方法:对澳门的人民币流通情况进行定性分析,并收集流通量数据和贸易量、博彩消费收入等数据,在ADF检验和协整检验后,建立误差修正模型,并进行Granger检验。结论:澳门对内地的贸易量、澳门从内地游客身上获得的博彩和旅游收入这两个因素将对人民币的流通量产生正面影响。而长期来看,人民币在澳门的流通情况可能还取决于内地直接投资、人民币汇率和澳门居民对人民币的信心。
OBJECTIVE: To discuss the current status of circulation of RMB in Macao, and to analysis the influence factors METHOD: Data has been collected, including RMB circulation, trade between mainland and Macao, gambling and lottery income from mainland. The paper has established an error correction model after Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and cointegration test. Granger test is also used to descript causal relations between data. RESULT and CONCLUSION: Two factors--trade between mainland and Macao, gambling and lottery income from mainland—have positive effects on RMB circulation in Macao. And the circulation status depends on direct investment from mainland, RMB exchange and confidence on RMB.
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