Given that the impact of the world economy on the China economy and its stock market
may have increased substantially in the last few decades, we examine whether US economic
variables can predict the Chinese stock market. We find that although before China joined the
World Trade Organization (WTO) in the end of 2001, the US economic variables generally do
not show significant predictive power on the Chinese stock market, they do provide significant
predictive power after 2001. Moreover, we show that the US economic variables can be used
in conjunction with China economic variables to achieve better return forecasts for the Chinese
stock market, which turn out to be economically important from an investment perspective.
展开