This paper examines whether there is evidence of spillovers of volatility from the Chinese stock
market to its neighbours and trading partners, including Australia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan
and USA. China's increasing integration into the global market may have important consequences
for investors in related markets. In order to capture these potential eects, we explore these issues
using an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) return equation. A univariate GARCH model
is then adopted to test for the persistence of volatility in stock market returns, as represented by
stock market indices. Finally, univariate GARCH, multivariate VARMA-GARCH, and multivariate
VARMA-AGARCH models are used to test for constant conditional correlations and volatility
spillover eects across these markets. Each model is used to calculate the conditional volatility
between both the Shenzhen and Shanghai Chinese markets and several other markets around the
Pacic Basin Area, including Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Taiwan and Singapore, during four
distinct periods, beginning 27 August 1991 and ending 17 November 2010. The empirical results
show some evidence of volatility spillovers across these markets in the pre-GFC periods, but there is
little evidence of spillover eects from China to related markets during the GFC. This is presumably
because the GFC was initially a US phenomenon, before spreading to developed markets around
the globe, so that it was not a Chinese phenomenon.
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