It has been long that literature in financial academics focuses mainly on price and return but much less on trading volume. In the past twenty years, it has already linked both price and trading volume to economic fundamentals, and explored the behavioral implications of trading volume such as investor’s attitude toward risks, overconfidence, disagreement, and attention etc. However, what is surprising is how little we really know about trading volume. Here we show that trading volume probability represents the frequency of market crowd’s trading action in terms of behavior analysis, and test two adaptive hypotheses relevant to the volume uncertainty associated with price in China stock market. The empirical work reveals that market crowd trade a stock in efficient adaptation except for simple heuristics, gradually tend to achieve agreement on an outcome or an asset price widely on a trading day, and generate such a stationary equilibrium price very often in interaction and competition among themselves no matter whether it is highly overestimated or underestimated. This suggests that asset prices include not only a fundamental value but also private information, speculative, sentiment, attention, gamble, and entertainment values etc. Moreover, market crowd adapt to gain and loss by trading volume increase or decrease significantly in interaction with environment in any two consecutive trading days. Our results demonstrate how interaction between information and news, the trading action, and return outcomes in the three-term feedback loop produces excessive trading volume which includes various internal and external causes. Finally, we reconcile market dynamics and crowd’s trading behaviors in a unified framework by Shi’s price-volume differential equation in stock market where, we assume, investors derive a liquidity utility expressed in terms of trading wealth which is equal to the sum of a probability weighting utility and a reversal utility in reference to an outcome.
JEL Classifications: G12, G02, D83 (长期以来,金融学术领域里的文献只注重价格和收益率,却较少研究交易量。在最近的二十年里,金融学术文献已经开始研究价格和交易量两者与经济基本量之间的相互关系,并且探讨交易量的行为内涵,例如投资者对风险的态度、过度自信、不同观点以及关注程度等等。然而,我们还是对交易量的认识知之甚少。本文根据行为分析,用交易量概率来表示市场群体的交易频率,并且通过我国股市来实证检验涉及交易量与价格之间不确定关系的两种适应性假说。实证结果表明:市场群体在每日交易的时间窗口内除了采用简单的经验法则之外,同时还采用有效的适应性方式来从事股票交易,并且逐步倾向于形成一个结果和认同的资产价格;无论该资产价格是否明显地被高估或低估,市场群体在相互作用和竞争的过程中往往能够形成这样一个稳态的均衡价格。这表明了资产价格不仅包含了基本价值同时还包含了非公开信息、投机、情绪、关注、赌博和娱乐等价值。此外,在任意两个连续交易日之间,市场群体在与市场环境的相互作用过程中,通过交易量的增加或减少来有效地适应盈亏。我们的研究结果说明了在由信息、交易与收益结果三项构成的反馈环中,它们之间的相互作用是如何导致了过度交易的,这其中包含了导致过度交易的各种内外因素。最后,我们假设股票市场中的投资者是通过交易财富来产生流动性效用,它等于概率加权效用与相对于结果为参照系的反转效用之和,从而推导出Shi氏价-量微分方程,将市场动力学行为与群体交易行为协调在一个统一的框架体系。)
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