所属栏目:资本市场/市场微观结构

Rational Panics, Liquidity Black Holes And Stock Market Crashes: Lessons From The State-Sh
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发布日期:2008年05月03日 上次修订日期:2008年05月03日

摘要

A government policy aimed at the reduction of state shares in state-owned enterprises (SOE) triggered a crash in the Chinese stock market. The sustained depression and spillover even after the policy adjustments were over constitute a puzzle---the so called "state-share paradox". The empirical study finds evidence in two dimensions. First, a regime switching model with an absorbing state suggests that government policy switches the regime to liquidity black holes. Second, there is no evidence of flight-to-liquidity during the crash, suggesting to model the crash as an aggregate phenomenon of the whole market. To carefully match the evidence, a theoretical model is set up within the framework of market microstructure. The model shows that the Chinese stock market has distinctive features of liquidity production and price discovery. The irregularities generate an inverted-S demand curve, gives rise to potential liquidity black holes, and are key features to explain the state-share paradox. This study contributes a rational panics hypothesis to the literature. The rational panics hypothesis is neither a herding model with or without behavioral assumptions, nor a standard rational expectation model under the asymmetric information framework. It is based on homogeneous agents with incomplete information, and is consistent with the evidence of absorbing regime switching and the recent literature on state-dependent preference. Our findings have larger implications for theoretical modeling and policy design.
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陈灯塔; ZHOU Yinggang Rational Panics, Liquidity Black Holes And Stock Market Crashes: Lessons From The State-Sh (2008年05月03日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/14720.html

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