摘要:Fama和French(1993,1996)的因素模型比资本资产定价模型更好地描述了横截面股票收益率的变动,我们采用深市最新的股票数据(1996.01-2003.12)对Fama和French(1993,1996)的三因素模型在我国证券市场上进行了检验。在国内我们首次论证检验了三因素模型在我国证券市场是成立的,而且我们对三因素模型回归系数的稳定性和模型的预测能力进行了实证研究。我们检验了我国证券市场上是否有“新年效应”现象,得到我国证券市场的低账面市场比公司(除小规模公司)具有的“一月效应”,但显著性不是很强,m/M组合具有“二月效应”。我们的研究结果为投资组合选择、预测、决策及其业绩评价提供了一定的依据,具有理论和实际应用参考价值。
Research and Test of The three factor-factor Model in Chinese Stock Market
Deng Changrong Ma Yongkai
(Management College, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,Chengdu,Sichuan 610054)
Abstract: The three factor-factor Model, established by Fama and French, is considered to describe cross-sectional stock returns better than CAPM. Based on the newest 96 month stock data from 01 1996 to 12 2003, we research and test the model. We found the model is suitable for Chinese Stock Market. Then we research the coefficient stability and the forecast ability of the model. At the same time, we test the so-called ‘new-year effect’. We drew the conclusions that the m/L and b/L portfolios have the ‘January effect’ and the m/M portfolio has the ‘February effect’. Our researches have important theoretical and practical valuation, provides some condition for the selection、forecast、and decision of investment portfolios.
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