所属栏目:资本市场/金融危机

Geopolitical Risks, Investor Sentiment and Industry Stock Market Volatility in China: Evidence from a Quantile Regression Approach
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发布日期:2023年12月18日 上次修订日期:2023年12月18日

摘要

From an industry perspective, this paper applies the quantile regression to investigate the impact of investor sentiment (IS) and China’s/U.S. geopolitical risks (GPR) on Chinese stock market volatility. Considering the structural break of the stock market for theperiod2003/02-2021/10, we find that the impact of geopolitical risk on stock market volatility is highly heterogeneous, and its significance mostly appears in the upper and lower tails. At the market level, China’s and U.S. GPR/IS and their interaction effects have no significant impact on China’s stock market volatility. However, there has an asymmetric dependence between China’s and U.S. GPR/IS and stock market volatility, and the dependence structure is changing. At the industry level, the current and lagging effects of China’s and U.S. GPR on industry stock market volatility are heterogeneous. Second, for most industries, China’s and U.S. GPR/IS can exacerbate industry stock market volatility both in bullish and bearish markets. In addition, China’s and U.S.GPR/IS and their interaction effects are heterogeneous and asymmetric, and the effects changes with the break point. Finally, compared with China’s GPR, the U.S. GPR has a larger impact on the industry stock market. The interactive effects of the U.S. GPR and IS can influence more industry stock market volatility.
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Peng Guo; Jing Shi Geopolitical Risks, Investor Sentiment and Industry Stock Market Volatility in China: Evidence from a Quantile Regression Approach (2023年12月18日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/15452.html

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