所属栏目:资本市场/资产定价

Motivated Extrapolative Beliefs
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发布日期:2024年07月22日 上次修订日期:2024年07月22日

摘要

This study investigates the relationship between investors’ prior gains or losses and their adoption of extrapolative beliefs. Our findings indicate that investors facing prior losses tend to rely on optimistic extrapolative beliefs, whereas those experiencing prior gains adopt pessimistic extrapolative beliefs. These results support the theory of motivated beliefs. The interaction between the capital gain overhang and extrapolative beliefs results in noteworthy mispricing, yielding monthly returns of approximately 1%. Motivated extrapolative beliefs comove with investors’ survey expectations and trading behavior, and help explain momentum anomalies. Additionally, households are susceptible to this belief distortion. Institutional investors can avoid overpriced stocks associated with motivated (over-)optimistic extrapolative beliefs.
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Siyuan Yang Motivated Extrapolative Beliefs (2024年07月22日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/15774.html

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