所属栏目:家庭金融/消费金融

Chinese Housing Market Sentiment Index: A Generative AI Approach and An Application to Monetary Policy Transmission
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发布日期:2025年02月26日 上次修订日期:2025年02月26日

摘要

We construct a daily Chinese Housing Market Sentiment Index by applying GPT-4o to Chinese news articles. Our method outperforms traditional models in several validation tests, including a test based on a suite of machine learning models. Applying this index to household-level data, we find that after monetary easing, an important group of homebuyers (who have a college degree and are aged between 30 and 50) in cities with more optimistic housing sentiment have lower responses in non-housing consumption, whereas for homebuyers in other age-education groups, such a pattern does not exist. This suggests that current monetary easing might be more effective in boosting non-housing consumption than in the past for China due to weaker crowding-out effects from pessimistic housing sentiment. The paper also highlights the need for complementary structural reforms to enhance monetary policy transmission in China, a lesson relevant for other similar countries. Methodologically, it offers a tool for monitoring housing sentiment and lays out some principles for applying generative AI models, adaptable to other studies globally.
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Yunhui Zhao; Kaiji Chen Chinese Housing Market Sentiment Index: A Generative AI Approach and An Application to Monetary Policy Transmission (2025年02月26日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16150

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