所属栏目:资本市场/市场微观结构

When Walls Become Targets: Strategic Speculation and Price Dynamics under Price Limit
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发布日期:2025年07月09日 上次修订日期:2025年07月09日

摘要

This study shows how price limit rules, intended to stabilize markets, inadvertently distort price dynamics by fostering strategic speculation. Through a dynamic rational expectations model, we demonstrate that price limits induce post limit-up price jumps by impeding full information incorporation, enabling speculators to artificially push prices to upper bounds and exploit uninformed traders. The model predicts two distinct patterns: (1) stocks closing at price limits exhibit positive overnight returns followed by long-term reversals, and (2) stocks retreating from upper bounds suffer sharp reversals with partial recovery. Empirical analysis confirms these predictions. A natural experiment from China’s 2020 GEM reform —- which widened the price limit -— further provides causal evidence that relaxed limits mitigate speculative distortions.
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姜浩博; 黎新平 When Walls Become Targets: Strategic Speculation and Price Dynamics under Price Limit (2025年07月09日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16312

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