所属栏目:资本市场/资产定价

Different Opinion or Information Asymmetry: Machine-Based Measure and Consequences
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发布日期:2025年07月10日 上次修订日期:2025年07月10日

摘要

We leverage machine learning to introduce belief dispersion measures to distinguish different opinion (DO) and information asymmetry (IA). Our measures align with the human-based measure and relate to economic outcomes in a manner consistent with theoretical prediction: DO positively relates to trading volume and negatively linked to bid-ask spread, whereas IA shows the opposite effects. Moreover, IA negatively predicts the cross-section of stock returns, while DO positively predicts returns for underpriced stocks and negatively for overpriced ones. Our findings reconcile conflicting disagree-return relations in the literature and are consistent with Atmaz and Basak (2018)’s model. We also show that the return predictability of DO and IA stems from their unique economic rationales, underscoring that components of disagreement can influence market equilibrium via distinct mechanisms.
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Yang Liu; Kang Guo; Tianyu Wang Different Opinion or Information Asymmetry: Machine-Based Measure and Consequences (2025年07月10日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16327

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