所属栏目:银行与金融机构/金融与宏观经济

Trade Friction and Evolution Process of Price Discovery in China's Agricultural Commodity Markets
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发布日期:2025年09月07日 上次修订日期:2025年09月07日

摘要

This paper is the first to examine the evolution of price discovery in agricultural commodity markets across the four distinct phases determined by trade friction and trade policy uncertainty. Using cointegrated vector autoregressive model and common factor weights, we report that corn, cotton, soybean meal, and sugar (palm oil, soybean, soybean oil, and wheat) futures (spot) play a dominant role in price discovery during the full sample period. Moreover, the leadership in price discovery evolves over time in conjunction with changes in trade friction phases. However, such results vary across commodities. We also report that most of the agricultural commodity markets are predominantly led by futures markets in price discovery during phase Ⅲ, except for the wheat market. Our results indicate that taking trade friction into consideration would benefit portfolio managements and diversifying agricultural trade partners holds significance.
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Yan Hong; Rong Kong Trade Friction and Evolution Process of Price Discovery in China's Agricultural Commodity Markets (2025年09月07日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16372

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