所属栏目:资本市场/资产定价

DOI号:http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5417347

On Cross-Stock Predictability of Peer Return Gaps in China
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发布日期:2025年12月17日 上次修订日期:2025年12月17日

摘要

While many studies document cross-stock predictability where returns of some stocks predict returns of other similar stocks, most evidence comes from US markets. Following Chen et al. (2019), we identify peer firms based on historical return similarity and construct a Peer Return Gap (PRG) measure, defined as the difference between a stock’s lagged return and its peers’ returns. Our empirical evidence from Chinese markets shows that past-return-linked peers strongly predict focal firm returns. A long-short portfolio sorted on PRG generates an equal-weighted monthly return of 1.26% (t = 3.81) and a Fama-French five-factor alpha of 1.10% (t = 2.86). These abnormal returns remain unexplained by several alternative factor models.
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Yilin Chen; Zheqi Fan On Cross-Stock Predictability of Peer Return Gaps in China (2025年12月17日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16501

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