所属栏目:资本市场/资产定价

Does Cross-Asset Time-Series Momentum Truly Outperform Single-Asset Time-Series Momentum? New Evidence from China's Stock and Bond Markets
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发布日期:2026年01月18日 上次修订日期:2026年01月18日

摘要

We revisit cross-asset time-series momentum (XTSM) and single-asset time-series momentum (TSM) in China's stock and bond markets. With a fixed-effects model, we find a positive momentum from bonds to stocks and a negative momentum from stocks to bonds, with both momentum persisting for no more than six months. By employing a cross-grouping method, we find that the choice of lookback periods and asset signals impacts the performance of XTSM and TSM. A comparison between XTSM, TSM, and time-series historical (TSH) portfolios reveals that XTSM outperforms in small/midcap stocks and government bonds, while its performance is weak in large-cap stocks and corporate bonds. A spanning test confirms that XTSM generates excess returns that other pricing factors can not explain. XTSM is more prone to momentum crashes. Increased market stress has similarly adverse effects on XTSM and TSM. Furthermore, Market illiquidity, IPO counts, new investor accounts, and consumer confidence index positively correlate with the returns of XTSM and TSM portfolios, while IPO first-day return and turnover rate correlate negatively. The effects of these sentiment indicators exhibit heterogeneity.
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Xiaowei Wang; Fengning Zhang Does Cross-Asset Time-Series Momentum Truly Outperform Single-Asset Time-Series Momentum? New Evidence from China's Stock and Bond Markets (2026年01月18日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16519.html

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