所属栏目:资本市场/市场微观结构

Estimation of the Hurst Exponent under Endogenous Noise and Structural Breaks: A Penalized Mixture Whittle Approach
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发布日期:2026年03月29日 上次修订日期:2026年03月29日

摘要

The Hurst exponent is a key parameter for characterizing the long memory of high-frequency time series. However, traditional estimators often exhibit systematic biases due to the influence of high-frequency endogenous noise and low-frequency trend shifts. Theoretical derivations show that endogenous noise contemporaneously correlated with the latent signal possesses a spectral density in the first-differenced series that is asymptotically equivalent to a squared sine functional form. Accordingly, the proposed estimator incorporates a corresponding spectral density component to fit the high-frequency error. Simultaneously, the model introduces a SCAD penalty term to control the low-frequency spectral divergence caused by structural breaks, thereby mitigating spurious long memory in parameter estimation. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the Penalized Mixture Whittle estimator yields smaller finite-sample biases and root mean square errors in scenarios involving both trend disturbances and endogenous noise. Empirical analysis shows that the estimates obtained using this method are robust to changes in sampling frequency. In further volatility forecasting experiments on commodity futures, the linear forecasting model constructed based on the parameter set achieves higher prediction accuracy than benchmark models such as HAR, as confirmed by the Diebold-Mariano test. This paper provides an effective econometric tool for high-frequency data inference in the presence of composite statistical disturbances.
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余汶轩; 刁训娣 Estimation of the Hurst Exponent under Endogenous Noise and Structural Breaks: A Penalized Mixture Whittle Approach (2026年03月29日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16648

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