所属栏目:新金融/金融科技

Luck in the Marketplace: Auspicious Timing and Financial Decision-Making
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发布日期:2026年05月31日 上次修订日期:2026年05月31日

摘要

We study the role of superstition in China’s peer-to-peer lending market by ex-amining whether lenders time their bids according to “lucky hours” from the Chinese farmer’s calendar. Loans funded during lucky hours perform better—but only because the platform lists higher-rated loans at those times. This pattern is consistent with a screening mechanism: highly risk-averse lenders place greater value on both true risk reductions and auspicious-day signals, so the platform maximizes surplus by bundling the two—listing low-risk loans on auspicious days. Moreover, listing safer loans at lucky hours can further boost proffts because biased beliefs decay more slowly under asymmetric (bad-news-heavy) learning.
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GE GAO; CARLO PERRONI; SASHA TALAVERA; LINH VI Luck in the Marketplace: Auspicious Timing and Financial Decision-Making (2026年05月31日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16711.html

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