所属栏目:资本市场/市场微观结构

Adverse Selection and Overnight Returns: Information-Based Pricing Distortions Under China's "T+1" Trading
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发布日期:2026年05月31日 上次修订日期:2026年05月31日

摘要

Contrary to the U.S., Chinese stock markets exhibit negative overnight returns, which further decrease with information asymmetry. We demonstrate that China’s "T+1" trading rule, which prohibits same-day selling, exacerbates adverse selection for uninformed buyers by limiting them to react to post-trade information. Prices are hence initially discounted at opening and recovered by the market close, generating negative overnight returns that are inversely related to information asymmetry risks. Consistent with adverse selection, empirical evidence reveals lower overnight returns during market declines and high-volatility periods, with robust negative associations between overnight returns and information asymmetry proxied by ffrm size, analyst coverage, and earnings announcement proximity. A model is introduced to rationalize our findings. The framework also sheds light on China’s "opening return puzzle", the phenomenon that intraday price rises concentrate predominantly in the initial 30 minutes of trading, by showing how reduced adverse selection enables rapid price recovery during opening session.
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Haobo Jiang; Xinping Li Adverse Selection and Overnight Returns: Information-Based Pricing Distortions Under China's "T+1" Trading (2026年05月31日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16717.html

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