所属栏目:资本市场/市场微观结构

Reversion Speed in Trading Volume as a Proxy for Informational Efficiency: A Case Study of China
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发布日期:2026年06月07日 上次修订日期:2026年06月07日

摘要

This study investigates the mean-reversion behavior of trading volume, using China’s A-share market as a representative setting characterized by dispersed retail investors, frequent public disclosures, and active policy interventions. We compare two competing interpretations:the stealth-trading hypothesis, in which persistent volume reflects order-splitting by informed investors, and the informational efficiency hypothesis, which links faster volume reversion to more effective information processing. Using the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) model, we estimate reversion speeds for over 3,000 stocks and relate these to firm- and industry-level characteristics. We find that trading volume is broadly mean-reverting, with over 98% of stocks exhibiting stationarity. The OU model forecasts reversion speed with less than 7% error. Faster reversion is associated with larger firm size, greater analyst coverage, lower volatility, and higher liquidity. Notably, reversion speed increased after accounting reforms but declined following capital access liberalization, suggesting that regulatory policy can both enhance and impair informational efficiency. These findings position reversion speed as an observable proxy for market responsiveness and highlight trading volume as a central variable in empirical market microstructure research.
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Mhin Kang; Zhihao Chen Reversion Speed in Trading Volume as a Proxy for Informational Efficiency: A Case Study of China (2026年06月07日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16739.html

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