所属栏目:资本市场/市场微观结构

Mean Reversion in Trading Volume and Informational Efficiency: Evidence from China's Stock Market
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发布日期:2026年06月21日 上次修订日期:2026年06月21日

摘要

This study examines the mean-reversion behavior of trading volume in China’s A-share market, with a focus on the speed at which abnormal surges dissipate. We compare two competing hypotheses: the stealth-trading hypothesis, where persistent volume reflects order-splitting by informed traders, and the informational-efficiency hypothesis, which interprets faster reversion as a sign of efficient information absorption. Using the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) model, we estimate the reversion speed for over 3,000 stocks and link it to firm- and industry-level characteristics. We find that trading volume is strongly mean-reverting, with over 98% of stocks classified as stationary. The OU model forecasts reversion speed with less than 7% error. Faster reversion is associated with larger size, higher analyst coverage, lower volatility, and greater liquidity. Notably, reversion speed increased after the 2006 IFRS reform but declined following Stock Connect, suggesting that stock market policies can influence informational efficiency. Our OU-based methodology offers a simple, observable proxy for monitoring how quickly markets process information. These results position trading volume as a core variable in market microstructure research and policy evaluation.
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Mhin Kang; Zhihao Chen Mean Reversion in Trading Volume and Informational Efficiency: Evidence from China's Stock Market (2026年06月21日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16758

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