We investigate whether overnight news sentiment adds predictive value for overnight returns. We focus on the CSI300 Index, whose ETFs are widely held by Chinese retail investors. Sentiment indi-cators are constructed from minute-level overnight news using a fine-tuned RoBERTa model. These indicators are combined with market-based variables to predict overnight returns via regression and machine learning. Results show that while the sentiment alone has predictive value, its incremental contribution disappears once the A50 overnight return is included.
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