所属栏目:资本市场/资产定价

Freight Activity and Stock Returns: Evidence from Truck-Level Geolocation Data
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发布日期:2026年07月19日 上次修订日期:2026年07月19日

摘要

This paper investigates whether firm-level freight activity captures corporate fundamentals and predicts stock returns. Using smartphone geolocation data of truck drivers from 2019 to 2024, we construct a novel freight growth index (FGI) to quantify firms’ freight activity in the Chinese stock market. We find that firms’ freight growth is strongly associated with current operating performance and predicts future stock returns. A long-short portfolio sorted on FGI generates significant risk-adjusted monthly returns ranging from 57 to 72 basis points. Further evidence suggests that freight growth forecasts earnings announcement returns and is more predictive for firms with low information transparency. Moreover, freight growth provides incremental information in predicting stock returns beyond analyst forecasts. Our findings highlight that firm-level freight activity contains novel insights into firm fundamentals and stock pricing.
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Chengyu Li; Qingsong Ruan; Guojun Wang Freight Activity and Stock Returns: Evidence from Truck-Level Geolocation Data (2026年07月19日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16783.html

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