所属栏目:银行与金融机构/房地产金融

Option Loss and Transaction Cascades in the Housing Market
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发布日期:2026年08月26日 上次修订日期:2026年08月26日

摘要

In dynamic housing markets, a sale can affect not only the transacting parties, but also other buyers who had considered the property. We develop a dynamic sequential search model in which property exit creates imperfect recall and signals tighter market conditions, generating transaction cascades. Using data from a major Chinese housing platform, we exploit quasi-random sales of previously inspected properties as option-loss shocks. Option loss raises affected buyers’ purchase probability by 67%, with stronger effects in tighter markets and among buyers with larger choice sets. A back-of-the-envelope quantification suggests that these cascades accounts for about 30% of observed market-level transaction activity. Option loss also reduces the number of property visits, broadens search criteria, and is associated with higher transaction prices. The results highlight imperfect recall in dynamic search as a microlevel channel through which housing market activity can be amplified.
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Ning Jia; Ruiyu Zhu Option Loss and Transaction Cascades in the Housing Market (2026年08月26日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16842

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