所属栏目:资本市场/资产定价

摘要

This study investigates the relationship between the number of stock concepts and future returns, as well as the economic mechanisms underlying this association. Using novel collected data, we find that stocks with a greater number of concepts earn significantly higher returns in the subsequent month, generating a six-factor adjusted annualized alpha of approximately 9.6% for a long-short portfolio. Although these stocks exhibit higher turnover, return volatility, and investor attention - features commonly associated with speculative concept-driven trading - an analysis of cross-listed AH twin stocks reveals that concept counts do not widen the AH premium. Moreover, the return premium persists for up to 15 months without significant reversal, whereas firms that engage in opportunistic concept-chasing exhibit pronounced long-run reversals, suggesting that the positive concept-return relation is not driven by speculative motives. The higher returns are primarily attributable to strong industrial policy support and sustained above-expectation operating performance. Firms with more concepts are more likely to receive government subsidies and deliver positive earnings surprises, effects that are amplified when their core concepts receive stronger national policy backing. In contrast, firms that pursue concepts lacking substantive business relevance are significantly less likely to obtain government subsidies and fail to achieve above-expectation growth. Regarding investor composition, institutional ownership of high-concept stocks increases modestly, while ownership by government-guided funds rises substantially - particularly for stocks whose core concepts are strongly supported by national industrial policies. Conversely, concept-chasing behavior by listed firms significantly reduces the ownership ratio of government-guided funds. Overall, our findings indicate that concept stocks in China’s capital market are not purely speculative but signal underlying national policies.
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Yugang Yin; Yahui Liu Concept-Driven Trading in China's Stock Market (2026年09月22日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16873.html

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