所属栏目:银行与金融机构/中央银行与货币政策

摘要

We study international monetary policy comovement using a large language model to analyze statements from 32 central banks. Federal Reserve guidance predicts subsequent policy guidance abroad, while its growth and inflation assessments show no comparable predictability. This guidance relationship strengthens with financial stress and capital-account openness, suggesting a financial channel. Consistent with this interpretation, central banks more often explain how external conditions affect domestic risks and policy choices when guidance is collectively closer to the Fed's. Guidance alignment also has exchange-rate implications: closer prior guidance is associated with less currency depreciation following unexpected upward revisions to the U.S. policy-rate path.
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彭铄钧; 林文威; 李泽昊 Monetary Policy Coordination: Evidence from Central Bank Statements (2026年10月19日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16900.html

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