所属栏目:资本市场/固定收益证券

摘要

Using a large language model (LLM), we construct a narrative sentiment index to investigate the predictability of risk premia in the Chinese Treasury bond market. Both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses demonstrate that narrative sentiment significantly and negatively forecasts future bond excess returns, yielding significant economic value for mean-variance investors. By incorporating this measure into an affine term structure model (ATSM), we identify a dual-channel effect: narrative sentiment relates positively to expected future short rates but negatively to excess returns, with the impact intensifying at longer maturities. Risk premia estimated via this sentiment-augmented ATSM exhibit more pronounced countercyclical dynamics. Finally, we establish that narrative sentiment carries forward-looking signals regarding both subjective expectations and future fundamentals, providing a coherent economic foundation for its predictive power in the bond market.
展开

Jiazi Chen; Fuwei Jiang; Tian You Large Language Model and Bond Risk Premia in China (2026年11月09日) https://www.cfrn.com.cn/lw/16983.html

选择要认领的作者1
身份验证1
确认
取消
0.145850s