住房市场

  • 详情 Household debt overhang and bankruptcy abuse prevention 家庭债务积压与预防破产滥用
    Bankruptcy abuse prevention has been criticized for increasing foreclosure rates, imposing negative impacts on housing markets, and aggravating the financial crisis. By contrast, this paper documents that bankruptcy abuse prevention reduces household debt overhang, a phenomenon harmful to home values and housing markets. Using a difference-in-differences analysis, we find that households in recourse states increased their home improvement and maintenance expenditures after the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act, a period during which the households paid considerable attention to the downside risk of the housing market, and that the effects vary by home equity level. The results remain unchanged with alternative specifications and cannot be explained by credit changes, judicial and nonjudicial foreclosures, homestead exemption, house sales, or heterogeneous expectations. Last but not least, we use entropy balancing to eliminate the differences between the treatment and control groups and get similar results. 预防破产滥用的政策被认为推高止赎率、对住房市场造成负面影响以及加剧金融危机而饱受批评。与之相反,本文证明破产滥用预防能够缓解家庭债务积压(debt overhang)—— 而债务积压恰恰是一种损害房屋价值与住房市场的现象。采用双重差分(DID)分析,我们发现:在《破产滥用预防与消费者保护法案》(BAPCPA)实施后,**追索权州(recourse states)**的家庭增加了住房改善与维护支出;该时期家庭对住房市场的下行风险高度关注,且上述效应因房屋净值水平的不同而存在异质性。在多种替代设定下结果依然稳健,且不能被信贷变化、司法与非司法止赎、宅基地豁免、房屋销售或异质性预期所解释。最后,我们使用熵平衡(entropy balancing)方法消除处理组与控制组之间的差异,同样得到了一致的结果。
  • 详情 人口冲击,婚姻和住房市场
    住房价格持续、快速上涨是当前中国最重要的经济现象之一,论文尝试从人口这一基本面因素出发对此做出解读。论文首先以家庭世代交叠模型和古诺形式垄断竞争模型为基础构建了住房市场局部均衡模型,证明外生的人口冲击对住房市场需求和住房价格变化的重要影响。基于30个省级行政区面板数据的实证研究进一步显示,20世纪80年代(1981年-1991年)的生育高峰中出生人口集中进入婚龄,是导致2004年以来中国城市住房价格持续、快速上涨的重要原因之一,这一人口冲击对房价变化的解释力超过40%。上述研究成果提示,这种由于人口冲击引发的住房市场繁荣具有明显的周期性特征,需要警惕本轮婴儿潮导致的婚龄人口高峰过后可能出现的住房市场需求萎缩和住房价格显著下降,以及由此引发的对宏观经济稳定的影响。