家庭债务

  • 详情 Household debt overhang and bankruptcy abuse prevention 家庭债务积压与预防破产滥用
    Bankruptcy abuse prevention has been criticized for increasing foreclosure rates, imposing negative impacts on housing markets, and aggravating the financial crisis. By contrast, this paper documents that bankruptcy abuse prevention reduces household debt overhang, a phenomenon harmful to home values and housing markets. Using a difference-in-differences analysis, we find that households in recourse states increased their home improvement and maintenance expenditures after the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act, a period during which the households paid considerable attention to the downside risk of the housing market, and that the effects vary by home equity level. The results remain unchanged with alternative specifications and cannot be explained by credit changes, judicial and nonjudicial foreclosures, homestead exemption, house sales, or heterogeneous expectations. Last but not least, we use entropy balancing to eliminate the differences between the treatment and control groups and get similar results. 预防破产滥用的政策被认为推高止赎率、对住房市场造成负面影响以及加剧金融危机而饱受批评。与之相反,本文证明破产滥用预防能够缓解家庭债务积压(debt overhang)—— 而债务积压恰恰是一种损害房屋价值与住房市场的现象。采用双重差分(DID)分析,我们发现:在《破产滥用预防与消费者保护法案》(BAPCPA)实施后,**追索权州(recourse states)**的家庭增加了住房改善与维护支出;该时期家庭对住房市场的下行风险高度关注,且上述效应因房屋净值水平的不同而存在异质性。在多种替代设定下结果依然稳健,且不能被信贷变化、司法与非司法止赎、宅基地豁免、房屋销售或异质性预期所解释。最后,我们使用熵平衡(entropy balancing)方法消除处理组与控制组之间的差异,同样得到了一致的结果。
  • 详情 房价与家庭债务的“逆周期”
    本文通过构建包含异质性的家庭消费跨期替代弹性的 DSGE 模型,解释了负向 TFP冲击如何引起实际 GDP 增速下行与房价、债务上涨并存的现象,且负向 TFP 冲击的持续性决定了房价、债务是否出现“逆周期”及其规模。本文基于以下逻辑:负向 TFP 冲击导致收入下滑,消费跨期替代弹性异质性使得部分家庭有倾向于减少住房支出去平滑消费,相对地另一部分家庭倾向于增加住房投资,一方面,随着消费恢复住房需求快速回升,实际住房价格由低到高,同时利率下行,财富从储蓄者向借贷炒房者转移,形成住房财富两极分化,这种分化同时强化了储蓄家庭的居住需求和借贷炒房家庭的投资需求;另一方面,金融中介通过吸收部分家庭的储蓄并向另一类家庭放贷,通过利差不断积累净值,更高的净值对应更多的住房贷款,二者共同推动房价的持续上升。冲击的早期,两类家庭提供更多劳动获得可支配收入,劳动意愿上升部分抵消了产出下滑,随着住房价格上升及信贷繁荣,家庭减少劳动时间,实际产出随之下降,形成房价与债务的“逆周期”现象。央行通过盯住利差,或在货币政策规则中引入金融中介杠杆因子等途径干预信贷能够消除房价与家庭债务的“逆周期”现象。最后,从信贷错配的角度出发,房价上涨是预算软约束下财政刺激、不确定性上升引起的“副作用”。