目前投资国内银行股有几大困惑：银行的绝对价值如何衡量？国内银行普遍盈利能力明显比国外银行低，但市场给予的溢价为何反而高？几家银行在业绩有明显差距的情况下为何价格走势趋同？如何解读银行股价格波动特征？股价对哪些因素最敏感？ 我们通过对银行理论估值模型和价值驱动因素的分析，以及对中美银行股市场定价影响因素和估值差异进行分析，提出以下观点：1）银行股的长期价值中枢与盈利能力和权益增长相关，但由于市场短期并不关心银行如何达到高资产收益率，因此银行股短期走势与信息对盈利变动的影响相关。2）中美银行股估值水平差异的根本原因在于盈利增长率、盈利能力增长率和资本结构安排的差异，但由于所依赖的经济体和监管环境相差甚远，单凭这些区别无法说明国内银行股是否高估。3）在紧缩政策背景下，影响银行盈利波动的关键因素是货币政策、行业政策、利率和汇率政策、贷款质量、资产负债表风险。对风险的估算是投资的关键。4）目前国内银行的高度管制和利率等资金和产品定价非市场化导致非可控因素和经营受损风险与政策高度相关，但随着市场投资成熟度的提高和银行改革的深化，银行股价格将出现一个分化的过程，投资价值将由绝对价值决定。

Abstract: This paper is mainly to achieve two aims: 1. present industry analysis on investment banking business; 2. value Goldman Sachs stock through different methods. The paper is consisted of eight parts. Part one is introduction. In part two we make a general review on I-banking industry. In part three we present the profile of Goldman Sachs Group. Then in part four we will analyse GS financial data, based on its latest annual reports. In part five, we will briefly list business risks for GS. In part six we compare fundamental valuation ratios of three biggest investment banks. In part seven we present relevant valuation theory and then value Goldman Sachs stock through three methods: Dividend Discount Model, Price multiples and a simple Residual Income Model. As a final step, in the eighth part we draw a general conclusion of the paper.